Tuesday, July 12, 2005 9:33:06 PM
Trade Journal: Every 3rd Session of The Week
Just got a chance to check my emails. One of the orders that was filled was an interesting enough experiment that I thought I’d share with y’all.
Based on my observation, when the market’s in an uptrend, every third trading session of the week is an up day. The third session doesn’t have to be a Wednesday. June 2nd, for example, was Thursday, but it was the third session of that holiday shortened week. Incidentally, that too was an up day. When this pattern is broken, that usually signals the end is near for the uptrend. That’s what happened on 5/25, the only down day in the chain. And, when the market’s in a downtrend, every third session is a down day.
I used to do back-testing, but I'm finding out what happened a year ago is becoming less relevant than the way it used to be. So, I'm only focusing on the recent months, and sometimes even just weeks and days.
Since the recent run-up has not exceeded the June 2 intraday high, I’d still consider the market’s in a downtrend. And thus, I bought July $38 PUT at only $0.10 just to test this observation of mine.
And, that’s it for now. Have a wonderful evening.
Just got a chance to check my emails. One of the orders that was filled was an interesting enough experiment that I thought I’d share with y’all.
Based on my observation, when the market’s in an uptrend, every third trading session of the week is an up day. The third session doesn’t have to be a Wednesday. June 2nd, for example, was Thursday, but it was the third session of that holiday shortened week. Incidentally, that too was an up day. When this pattern is broken, that usually signals the end is near for the uptrend. That’s what happened on 5/25, the only down day in the chain. And, when the market’s in a downtrend, every third session is a down day.
I used to do back-testing, but I'm finding out what happened a year ago is becoming less relevant than the way it used to be. So, I'm only focusing on the recent months, and sometimes even just weeks and days.
Since the recent run-up has not exceeded the June 2 intraday high, I’d still consider the market’s in a downtrend. And thus, I bought July $38 PUT at only $0.10 just to test this observation of mine.
And, that’s it for now. Have a wonderful evening.
David
#board-3693
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