It’s worse than you think: Dr. Copper is Dead
Frik Els | November 23, 2011 MINING.COM
Reuters reports copper hit a one-month low on Wednesday, pressured by worries about the outlook for demand after factory growth in top consumer China slowed in November, a poor bond sale in Germany intensified concerns about the euro zone debt crisis and US efforts to tackle its budget flounders.
Three-month contracts for the red metal fell to a one-month low at $7,168 a tonne in intra-day trade in London and extended its losses in New York where it was trading at $3.27 a pound by early afternoon, its lowest level since October 25 and down 30% from its 2011 high of $4.61 set in February.
Copper used in the power, telecoms and construction sectors is often seen as a barometer for economic growth, but a new research report suggests “Dr. Copper is Dead” and that the red metal, along with oil, have actually been lagging other economic indicators.
In short: things may well be even worse than the fall in the copper price suggests. BusinessInsider quotes the research note from investment bank SocGen:
“Doctor Copper is dead because copper prices will, in our view, not be leading the ongoing slowdown of the global economy. Investors who use the copper price as a leading indicator for the current business cycle downturn are likely to be disappointed as copper is likely to lag other leading indicators. The reason for this is simple: the physical copper market is tight and has tightened further over recent months. The same is true for oil. The physical crude oil market is extremely tight at present, which explains why crude oil prices have been very resilient despite the terrible newsflow coming out of Europe and fears of a global recession.”
