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Re: realbiz post# 216

Tuesday, 11/22/2011 8:49:15 AM

Tuesday, November 22, 2011 8:49:15 AM

Post# of 274
That really is a good link. Another article I found interesting is the "case against space-x"....Before anyone gets upset, let me say I am very impressed with space-x's developments thus far, what they have accomplished in such a short term of existance.
The article mentions the re-useability of the crafts, actually the short-comings of the intended recovery. (That failed twice)
Even though space-x claims re-useability, may actually find they are committing to single-use expendables...that will affect the costs of successive-launches.
The other musings I have done, are related to profits, can these profits that are being projected be sustained? Forgive me for being apprehensive, but many business enterprises in recent history have degraded into "ponzi-like" schemes. (Irreguardless of how they started, something could go wrong...it will come down to how ethical the management is, should serious roadblocks occur.)
Profitability;

Elon says SpaceX has been profitable every year since 2007!

Okay, that’s great. How? There’s really only two possible answers: NASA’s money, or booking fees. If it is just the former then SpaceX is destined to become just another NASA lackey. So we prefer to think it is the latter – but that means they’re living on their seed corn. Eventually they’re going to have to actually fly these payloads or give back the deposits. So the acid test will come when SpaceX is called upon to launch and turn a profit in the same year. At that time we will discover if SpaceX is getting the launch rate they require to amortize the fixed costs such that their revenues exceed their expenses. Only then will we know if their prices were realistic.
Optimism is a good thing, It may be the strongest driving-force in space privatization, next to the 1st driving-force...Money.
I hope my worrys are unfounded, but was relieved to find that I wasn't the only one who thought space-x was making promises their tech has yet to prove. I wish them the best, time will tell.
http://moonandback.com/2011/11/21/the-case-against-spacex/


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