In the first line setting, 15% of gleevec pts develop resistance from mutations. Although another post recently attributed all 15% to the T315I mutation, the T315I mutation is responsible for only about half. Using a 7% incidence and gleevec's current run rate, i peg the 2nd line ponatinib T315I opportunity at around $300mm.
50% of sprycel/tasigna pts eventual progress so even in a third line setting, ponatinib has significant commercial opportunity. Based on current sprycel/tasigna sales, my "back on the envelope" has ponatinib revenue at around $900mm (to avoid double counting, I'm backing out the 300mm available from the second line).
Attach any reasonable multiple and ponatinib, alone, is worth more than ARIA current market cap. fwiw, I had a $12 year end target on the stock so based on current data I feel the stock is close to fairly valued. However for anyone with more than a short-term time horizon, there are significant catalysts (namely, rida approval, ponatinib NDA, AP113 P1/2 results) upcoming in 2012 that should push the stock higher. I don't know about Dew, but I can certainly find a better bio to short.
