I am currently long ARIA after selling (pure luck? some skill) above $13.40 earlier in the summer. I still do believe, just on the ponatinib data alone and "potential" partnership opportunties, etc., the stock has a lot more upside from here. '113 truly is the wild card. If you start seeing data on '113 as highly positive (much in the same light that some astute investors were witnessing on AP24534 aka Ponatinib when ARIA was trading in the $1-2 range), we could see ARIA tack on an additional $1 billion market cap (in a similar matter as what P has done for the stock). Without P, IMO, ARIA is nothing more than a <$500 million market cap.
What I can see happening is a ramp going into ASH, possible gap higher at the conference, and then the stock settling in a range (sort like the chart in INCY) until '113 becomes the second part of the story.
Over time, this company does have the makings of an biotech animal. Rida, Pona, '113, and their equity interest in Bellicum (AP1903)(which isn't even looked at, at all, now, ....by anyone on the sellside).
As I have said here before, the biggest reluctance I have in holding biotech stocks AFTER the data is out, approval etc., is that they become a revenue story which can really pop a bubble quick (see DNDN and HGSI). Then again, there are exceptions.
Another thing that concerns me is there are a LOT of whackos invested in ARIA right now who literally have no clue what they are talking about. To be honest, that was a big factor in my decision to sell my position over the summer---a position I had for a few years.
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Everything right now is really driven by macro events, and this will depend on if things get really driven higher (or lower) in the next 6 months. A big beta trade could be on, or off. It's tough to say, and it depends on two things: our imbeciles in congress who can't even agree on a budget deal, and 2. the other imbeciles on the other side of the ocean. If, by chance, those two things go away and something positive happens on both of them, the market is going to go higher because our markets are the strongest globally at this point. You can see it, clear as day: when Europe is NOT on the minds of traders the market goes higher----every single day. When the EZ becomes a problem, the market goes lower...ergo, take out EZ problems, we go higher.
