Some thoughts, now that I've digested today...
Posted on the yahoo board...
Cash burn almost $7M - said will decrease slightly. But w/ ABLATE started it won't go down too much. With $21.4M in cash, we have three full quarters - end of Q2 2012. THIS MEANS WE HAVE LESS THAN ONE YEAR. I'd expect a cash raise if the last-second interim runup+presentations get us to $4+. We'll scream and holler, especially if we get a successful interim, but if its a continue and we sink to $2.50 then we'll be glad we did. Probably a $15-18M raise, to be sure we get through end of Q4 - whatever shares that works out to be at the price we're at.
700 enrollment target is really great news, after thinking about it. And he said China is "quickly approaching" 200, which probably means they've enrolled at least 30 odd patients (from the 40-50 they needed). Since 7/29, that's a bit more than 3 months... so almost 10 a month? We'll be there by the end of the year.
I'm curious where the other 50-60 patients are coming from? Spread from a bunch of sites or targeted in Asian countries? If we can get 10/month from all countries we could be fully enrolled by eoQ2... HOPE its quicker, but we all know how enrollment has gone for us. Seeing that in black & while (or, pixels...) makes me think 4q12 is not a shoe in for the final 380, but the extra enrollees definitely will help!
Problem is, if median is what we want, then extra "new enrollees" might "drag down" the Tdox arm at final. Any thoughts here? In other words, using a small N, if we had 12,16,20,24,28,32,40,44,44 - then the median is 28. But with a flood of new enrollees, we see the 12s, 16s, and 20s repeat .. so you have 12,12,16,16,20,20,24,28,32,40,44,44. That drags the median down to 20. Ouch -- any thoughts, summer, kid?
Got it straight in my mind that 190 did NOT occur as I assumed - by 8/14. Probably closer to 9/12-9/16? 11/25 then becomes 10 weeks. Would they REALLY be off too much in the 8-10 weeks, when they are at least six weeks into that period?
Placebo median remains the absolute key. If the company is right about 12 months, then its locked... the variance from that is the sole thing that determines our fate vis-a-vis the interim. I ask the board again - what would cause this to be higher than anticipated?
Regards,
Trond
AI
