What data? The data in Europe? It's fallen apart since the ECRI call. Remember, to this point, the slowdown and the recession have been driven by a deterioration of economic conditions in Europe. Those conditions are getting worse every day
ECRI was talking about being in a recession in the US 2 months ago on CNBC. It's not correct that they said that we will go into a recession in a few months, they clearly said we are already in one. I listened to the interview back then. That's exactly the reason this guy was hammered on TV yday. Europe looks bad but I never ever talked about Europe. In the US we got good data for weeks lately.
Oil at 96 USD. That's impossible if we would be in a recession. That shows you that the economy is not falling apart yet. Not yet at least. Latest unemployment revision were very positive as well. McDonald's sales are soaring, Caterpillar's business is soaring worldwide, Apple's business is booming. That doom and gloom scenario regarding the economy (except in Europe) is just not yet here IMO.
Regarding China. Well they have 2 different PMI statistics. I have no idea what the difference is between those but the one coming out from HSBC was very positive, the other one was not that good. Take your pick.
But again we are arguing for different things. I'm just not one guy who stops investing on the long side just because I think in 4 months from now we might be in a recession. I will always make more shorter term decisions. That's coming from somebody who is 70% in cash right now.
