1. Q3 report is right around the corner (next 2 weeks) we WILL start to see revenue from the solar side. Will it be enough to make us profitable? Probably not, yet, but it will get us heading in the right direction, if what management has told us is correct.
2. Insider selling is NOT an indicator for anything unless you see the entire BOD start dumping, there are a thousand reasons why an insider would sell but only one reason they buy. So what Lee did sucked but wasn't all that scary.
3. SPECULATION... BAE results confirming the first run of wafers was a success will happen by December or January. I think that falls inline with info we were given by the company and some info that was dug up by other posters.
4. After the Validation process our IB should not be to far behind in brokering the first couple deals they said they need 6+ months that means to me by the time Q4 is out we should here the beginings of the deals (February?)
5. The military WILL be the first customers of this product they have been paying for the development of POET and already have uses for it in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if BAE is another of the first customers as we already know they are developing devices for use with POET (this was mentioned on the SH board and also a NR I believe)
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About #1 - the Q3. I agree fully with your assessment about "some" profit, but nothing spectacular. The BOD spend a good deal of time at the AGM emphasizing the long sales cycle for solar. This means that the $50-$80M gets delayed. I'm predicting that when the Q3 comes due we will have a handful of semi-regulars complaining about "Where's the 50-80?!?!"
It's coming, but you're going to have to wait for it!
About #3 & #5, it's a solid bet that your prediction about BAE's work is correct also. I'm personally hoping that the wafers are related to that "drop-in" chip and/or military spec focused device they are developing.
www.opelinc.com/documents/management_discussion_and_analysis/MDA-Q2-30Jun11.pdf
From p.11:
"Develop a “drop-in” solution for the military marketplace using the POET technology, develop a Military Spec focused device and acquire a Contractor and Government Entity (CAGE) Code for its products..."
In the case where the wafers ARE for that purpose, we could see your #4 happening almost immediately since ODIS is already in bed with ARFL, Navy and NASA. According to Pellegrino's assumptions the deals that companies make with the military are pretty standard looking compared with the PC/Server/Smartphone applications.
opelinc.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/NR-2mar2011ODISValuation.pdf
Military:
• A time gap that ranges between 2 and 18 months exists that captures when each defense contractor considers executing a license.
• The defense contractors would pay an initial, nonexclusive license fee that may range between $20 million and $50 million
• Defense contractors would make monthly royalty payments thereafter of $250,000 to account for any product-specific royalties
Looks like a pretty tight range. If you notice the PC/Server/Smartphone scenario speaks of "negotiated royalty payments". It looks to me like maybe they *know* how this breaks down based on standard military practise. It would be nice is GrowthPoint started with the military in order to hit the ground running and then started in on the commercial side.
AI
