Intel Corp (INTC)

[jhalada]

Tenchu,

AMD is NOT the "squeaky-clean" company you think they are. Just watch their next earnings release, which IMO should confirm once and for all that AMD's lawsuit is a distraction from poor leadership and business directions.

Well, Otellini has as much power over AMD earnings as Hector Ruiz (even though I fault Ruiz for not providing timely updates). Did you get a peek at AMD earnings (from Otellini's notes), if you are so confident that AMD earnings are going to disappoint? And, if AMD does not disappoint, would you then consider AMD charges to no longer be "hyped up nonsense" if poor earnings confirm it is? I am trying to follow the argument...

BTW, here is one reason why AMD's ability to predict its future is poor:

64. Intel exacts a severe penalty from OEMs who fail to meet their targets. For example, during the fourth quarter of 2004, AMD succeeded in getting on the HP retail roadmap for mobile computers, and its products sold very well, helping AMD capture nearly 60% of HP’s U.S. retail sales for the quarter. Intel responded by withholding HP’s fourth quarter rebate check and refusing to waive HP’s failure to achieve its targeted rebate goal. Instead, Intel “allowed” HP to make up the shortfall in succeeding quarters when HP promised
Intel at least 90% of HP’s mainstream retail business.
http://www.amd.com/us-en/assets/content_type/DownloadableAssets/AMD-Intel_Full_Complaint.pdf

If your competitor "orders" your best customer to cut his purchases in a particular segment from nearly 60% to 10%, is it a surprise that your estimates will not be worth the paper they are written on? Is AMD to blame that they can't think of any dirtier tricks that Intel has already come up with in the past?

BTW, this started from Rambus analogy. Are equating missed earnings to Rambus (alleged?) shenanigans at JEDEC? I think it is a bit of a stretch. I am guessing here, but there may be 1/4 or even 1/3 of all companies reporting earnings that will disappoint. Are these companies less than squeeky clean?

BTW #2, are you confident that earnings misses of AMD will not be more than made up potential damages collected? If AMD is awarded damages and they equate or exceed past earnings misses of AMD, will you then consider AMD squeeky clean? Will you then consider Intel dirty, if (among many other things) Intel earnings for past quarters and years, after reduction by damages paid, end up missing Intel and analyst estimates?

Joe