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Re: bellweather1 post# 117

Monday, 10/31/2011 6:50:05 PM

Monday, October 31, 2011 6:50:05 PM

Post# of 4124

And I suppose you believe that 10% is the appropriate volatility to use for CPRX?

I never used a 10% volatility. YOU DID.

Picking 10% vol out of the air(since it bears no relation to the stock's volatility) is what's really flawed.

I couldn't agree more, lol, but you are the one who used 10% in your calculation.

What's also really flawed is your apparent inability to fairly entertain and consider different viewpoints.

No need to make this personal. I just do not accept what I consider to be a flawed analysis. First, you assumed the warrant was equal in value to the underlying stock. Second, you assumed a 10% volatility then, when you got the wrong output, mistakenly insisted that the black-scholes model was incorrectly valuing ARIA options. Third, you insist on using the same volatility for both ARIA and CPRX even though the aria options have less than half the days to maturity and are basically at the money while the cprx warrant is dated 3 years longer and is almost 25% out of the money (btw, options that are out-of-the-money and have longer maturities tend to have reduced volatility which makes using the short term historical volatility as a proxy for implied volatility too simplistic). Like I said before - garbage in, garbage out.
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