Time for some math...
I remember a post last year where someone calculated out the potential for gold recovery and I found it very useful, so here is my calculation of SNEY possible valuation based on previous PRs and updated figures. I have based as many of these numbers as possible on past PRs, and what I didn't know for sure I tried to use a conservative guess. The actual numbers will be different due to variations in overburden, throughput, rainy seasons, finding better g/ton ore, no dilution, etc.
Production:
1 dredge = 40-50 tons/hr (from PR)
we have 3 dredges operating currently and plans to get 12 dredges on site. We may even have more than 3 operating now.
12 dredges x 45 tons = 540 tons/hr
540 x 8 hours = 4320 tons / day
I'm guesstimating 2g/ton gold recoverable @ 80% for a total of 1.6g/ton based on previous PRs and board posts.
1.6g/ton x 4320ton/day = 6912 g/day
6912grams/31.103grams/oz = 222.23 oz/day
assuming they only operate 8 hours a day, 5 days a week (no double shifts), I get the following:
5days/week x 52weeks/year = 260 days/year
260days/year x 222.23oz/day = 57,779 oz/yr
Now, assuming we sell at current market price($1,650/oz), that comes out to $95,336,398/yr
Market cap is typically around 2x annual revenue, so approx $400M market cap can be expected from dredging operations alone. At the current fully diluted float of around 2B shares, that equates to $0.10 pps.
Now we have a value for the company based on some conservative estimates, for dredging gold recovery ONLY.
If you consider that the titanium and other REEs in the black sands are worth OVER DOUBLE the gold value per ton of concentrate, this would boost the pps expectation to $0.20.
If you then add the unknown value of diamonds or some other "discreet element" they have hinted at in previous PRs, this may easily be WORTH $0.30 a share. On top of which, SNEY has been buying gold from the local artisan miners at an unknown quantity and price.
Management has already stated they are acquisition oriented and I would expect they are still shopping for more claims in the area. Add to this already high valuation the possibility of additional claims, more equipment, positive hard-rock drill results in Ghana and you start to get a picture of exactly how huge this company could become.
I say could because we still have some major hurdles to cross. Before we will see anywhere near $0.30 we need to get current in filings, and uplist off of pink. This should be done by eoy at the latest. We also need to purchase and deploy additional dredges (which may have been done already).
We will eventually need drill core results from Ghana as it appears we could literally be sitting on the mother lode (pun definitely intended)! All of this hinges on management, timing, capital for equipment, revenue generation, and a bit of luck. From what I can tell, we're in the money and I agree with mylife that I'm either in this stock until it turns into a 100 bagger, or goes to .0001.
I expect the 10k filing to have more information on some or all of the above.
This is all IMHO, but I felt it would be beneficial to some of the new faces I see to put things in perspective.
If anyone has better information than the numbers I have used, please post your own valuation.
AI
