Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

I respectfully disagree. I don't think one should extrapolate the results from the MTC trial to an effect on bone metastases, and it certainly doesn't clarify whether cabozantinib would have any competitive advantages over currently available drugs for prostate cancer.

There are no certainties in any clinical trials, just as there was no certainty, for example, that telaprevir from VRTX would work. But there comes a point when the risk clarifies itself sufficiently to garner an investment.

The soft tissue results on cabonzantinib have been less than underwhelming in my opinion to date, thereby my concern with this MTC trial. The top line data, however, was WOW. Given the prior soft tissue data that less than underwhelmed, either cabo did something it had not done very well in earlier trials, or it did something it has been shown to do very well in earlier trials, or it did something else.

No, cannot tell what exactly it did by this data. But I am inferring one thing, it did something very well, and I think it most likely what it did was something very well that it had previously given clue that it did (ie, bone scans), and then it probably out performed on soft tissue efficacy as well.

But you are correct, there may be something about the MTC indication that uniquely enabled cobanzantinib to perform, and that will not be present in other indications. But I don't find this to be likely. Had the results in MTC been less unequivocal I'd have more doubts still.

At some point you have to say I've seen enough and it is worth the investment before the upside is all built into the shares. To me this is one of those points. I sincerely hope, for my financial well being, that said inference is not horribly in error.

Thanks NP1986. Look forward to any light you can comment on as to specifically why this may not be the time to reassess the risk/reward on this drug, particularly at the present valuation.

Tinker