Almaden Minerals Ltd (AMM)

[Ed Monton]

I just found out that this is a Bob Bishop pick. Here is the article:

Finding the top gold stock picker
By: Tim Wood
Posted: 2003/01/13 Mon 15:45 / © Mineweb 1997-2003

NEW YORK -- In the newsletter business, it is exceptionally unusual to find a publisher who maintains a waiting list, more so when the subscriber list is just 500 strong. That discipline remains despite the temptation and capacity to grow the report a hundred times in a gold bull market like this and after picking two of the top three gold stocks in the world last year.
Had you invested $1,000 in Nevsun and Seabridge at the start of the year – companies Bob Bishop’s Gold Mining Stock Report had fingered for profit – you would have gained an additional $17,000 by the end of the year (+858%). In addition, GMSR told clients to go long on Glamis Gold (+214%) and Goldfields (+191%) among some of its best picks.

Bishop told subscribers in February last year that they needed to grit their teeth against the high multiples many gold stocks were carrying. “By any measure, gold stocks are not cheap—but a rising gold price will make them much less so. While the seniors will continue to be reactive to gold price follow-through, my preference would be to spend money farther down the food chain, favoring stocks that have shown much less movement – Nevsun (NSU.T/$0.65), First Point (FPX.CDNX/$0.30), Sultan Minerals (SUL.CDNX/$0.35), and Almaden (AMH.CDNX/$0.40).”

The only one that hasn’t performed particularly well has been Sultan, but it has held its value which is more than can be said for the broader market. Besides, all the other picks more than paid their way, including Wheaton River [WRM] (+139%) named in the same report.

It’s not just a fluke. GMSR previously recommended Nevsun way back in July 1995 at $1.95 and it flew to $17.35 a year later. In the same month of that year, Francisco Gold was added to the lost at $1.85, striding to $36 in February 97 “just before the resource world suffered a personality transplant,” says Bishop.

He has gained a reputation as one of the biggest stock movers in the business, making his endorsements heavily sort after. However, it’s not just another dog-and-pony Public Relations exercise the likes of which we see all too often nowadays. Bishop has no hesitation telling subscribers to sell, guiding them through each opportunity. He’s also unusually forthright about his own interests and makes it clear that he won’t recommend what he is selling

The GMSR also provides a snapshot for how radically gold investments have changed since early 2001 when it was recommending certain stocks: Aber at $14.85, but now worth $30; Almaden at $0.17, now a merger adjusted $0.90; Harmony at $5, now $17; and Gold Fields at $4.21, now $14.33.

When prices had appeared to race too far in early 2002, Bishop coached investors as follows: “Price revisions have been widespread and are perhaps daunting to those just beginning to consider the sector, but in a gold market that continues to advance, these and other share prices seem certain to build on their already impressive gains.”

Bishop, a genial fellow who self-deprecates by saying he has made money on every commodity except gold, remains confident that we’ll see more gains despite lofty valuations. However, he does warn that increasing Internet exposure for particular stocks (not all of it kosher in terms of author’s conflicts of interest) has made the game more interesting because prices and volumes are becoming detached from their fundamentals as the herd takes over. Likewise, the increasing use of technical analysis – thousands of people making decisions based on the same patterns – is driving stocks away from meaningful valuations. Finally, a lot of the momentum is second and third-hand, with newsletter subscribers having gained an advantage of hours and days.

“I saw enough of the self-fulfilling prophecy phenomenon in the last cycle, and hope to be able to continue to find stocks you can buy, not stocks you have to chase,” he tells subscribers in his most recent weekly bulletin.

He recommends that investors make “uncertainty” a watchword: “the more the word comes to mind, the more you should be thinking of taking money off the table it is lying upon. We’re facing a volatile future, and while I don’t think you should take an unserious view of all companies, I think treating some of them more like numbers—to be bought low and sold high—will keep things impersonal enough to assure that you have substantial profits to show for the current cycle.”

Nevertheless, he also notes that some people are being over-cautious in treating the present run in gold stocks, already well into its third year, as the very last one. That may have more than a little to do with age – those with memories and money in the 1980 spike in the gold price are getting rather long in the tooth.

Among Bishop’s recent stock picks are Wheaton River and Western Copper which have already gained significantly since word got out.

http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525...