Saturday, October 08, 2011 8:04:03 PM
BSTC / AUXL / Xiaflex / Peyronie's Disease:
I've actually been catching up on things have gotten around to looking at BSTC more especially since the market is making the price a bit more tempting
.
Negatives
. The Peyronie's trial is a concern as you noted the IIb data were mixed. I also saw the Phase III has a co-primary end point. I am pretty sure they have to hit on both that seems like a pretty high bar, I can recall one or two like that (not successful).
. Even though it appears the incidence of Dupuytren's seems considerably higher in Europe the price is about 1/3 of what they get in the US!
. The sales ramp (at least US, in EU its a bit early) has been slower then forecast.
. There appear to be quite a few safety concerns with Collagenase (ruptures, circulating in the blood/organs)
Pluses
. On the plus side the Peryonie's trial is allowing Modeling and a fourth treatment and in the IIb the modeling data seemed a lot better. If they hit in this indication the dose is considerably higher (8 vials vs. an average of just over 1).
(For those interested Auxilium has slides still available at http://ir.auxilium.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=142125&p=irol-presentations )
. I actually think think they have a descent chance at some of the other indications (frozen shoulder, Lipoma, Cellulite) but it would take some time to get an approval in one of these other indications.
. The biggest plus for me is BSTC gets 11% (10% royalty and ~1% markup on drug). They have said they won't acquire other drugs or waste money and want to increase "shareholder value" (have a token buyback the past couple years. More to the point they are what Dew would call a "virtual" company (5 employees) to me it makes them extremely profitable with what would be considered marginal sales. I've seen other drugs have slow launches and do OK several years out.
OK I've rambled enough. Anyone who makes it to here have thoughts plus or minus?
I've actually been catching up on things have gotten around to looking at BSTC more especially since the market is making the price a bit more tempting
. Negatives
. The Peyronie's trial is a concern as you noted the IIb data were mixed. I also saw the Phase III has a co-primary end point. I am pretty sure they have to hit on both that seems like a pretty high bar, I can recall one or two like that (not successful).
. Even though it appears the incidence of Dupuytren's seems considerably higher in Europe the price is about 1/3 of what they get in the US!
. The sales ramp (at least US, in EU its a bit early) has been slower then forecast.
. There appear to be quite a few safety concerns with Collagenase (ruptures, circulating in the blood/organs)
Pluses
. On the plus side the Peryonie's trial is allowing Modeling and a fourth treatment and in the IIb the modeling data seemed a lot better. If they hit in this indication the dose is considerably higher (8 vials vs. an average of just over 1).
(For those interested Auxilium has slides still available at http://ir.auxilium.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=142125&p=irol-presentations )
. I actually think think they have a descent chance at some of the other indications (frozen shoulder, Lipoma, Cellulite) but it would take some time to get an approval in one of these other indications.
. The biggest plus for me is BSTC gets 11% (10% royalty and ~1% markup on drug). They have said they won't acquire other drugs or waste money and want to increase "shareholder value" (have a token buyback the past couple years. More to the point they are what Dew would call a "virtual" company (5 employees) to me it makes them extremely profitable with what would be considered marginal sales. I've seen other drugs have slow launches and do OK several years out.
OK I've rambled enough. Anyone who makes it to here have thoughts plus or minus?
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
