Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Reading the publication that genisi kindly alerted us to, the results look quite impressive despite the small size of the study. Both the PFS and OS curves are well separated, and there was a complete response in the perifosine-capecitabine arm as well as three partial responses (compared to one PR in the capecitabine arm).

I agree. The results look very impressive to me. What is your preferred perifosine play, AEZS or KERX? I prefer AEZS because I think they licensed perifosine rights to KERX, they seem to have a much deeper pipeline, and they have a much smaller market cap. I don't normally do Phase 3 plays, but I might consider AEZS in 1Q12 if I have some funds just because market cap is tiny, they have a deep pipeline, and the Phase 2 perifosine results look so strong.

One issue which could have an impact on the outcome of the phase III study is the dose of capecitabine, which was increased from the 825 mg/m2 dose in the phase II study to 1000 mg/m2 in X-PECT.

Yeah I caught that after persuing the AEZS and KERX YMBs. But, the increase in capecitabine dose is an equal amount in both arms so I don't know how likely it is that will impact the perifosine arm from showing a benefit over the control arm. Nonetheless, it's a change, and worth noting. Perhaps more importantly, I also believe I read that the ongoing Phase 3 X-PECT trial is actually in a more dire patient population (salvage) than the Phase 2 patient population (2nd or 3rd-line). Perhaps this fact is more likely the reason Phase 3 results could diverge from the very promising Phase 2 results.

Have you heard any updated info on whether AEZS/KERX got a patent for the perifosine+capecitabine combo (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.aspx?msg=46039158 )? Absent that, the potentially short patent life, 2013 or possibly 2018 (#msg-46039158 ) , for perifosine is obviously a concern, but you have to think that if Phase 3 results for perifosine are positive, that both AEZS and KERX share prices will do quite well.