American Green Inc (ERBB)

[neilbolton]

Interestinginfo2,

I am really not in a position to compare. I haven't had the opportunity to see Mediamax V5 nor CDS-300 V8. And even if I did, I would not be able to judge them on important criteria such as hackability, since I wouldn't have a clue where to start.

However, the specs of each product can be read on the respective websites and to be honest, there doesn't seem much difference. I think they must all be close in capabilities if EMI, Sony and BMG each have chosen a different solution (at least predominantly one solution for the moment). If MediaMax was 50% ahead (whatever that means) as Mario said, then is should be a no brainer for the labels, yet they each have opted for a different product. I would think that each product has some weaknesses and strengths compared to the others. Also the labels have different priorities, so the labels will chose the best match of strengths to their priorities.

We see this as potentially a 5 or 6 bagger if we hold BMG and they roll out worldwide exclusively us, and we get about 50% of one other major. Our one big issue is royalty per CD and we are not convinced that we are getting 4 cents. We still only come up with 3 cents assuming MediaMax Tech's revenue is just 40% of all licensing revenue ($106K for MediaMax is $265K for both, divided by 9M CDs is just 3 cents). This is low volume royalty, so will that remain at 3 cents for higher volume. We also have contradictory information on whether the $106K is just the 40% or combined revenue.

Leaving that aside, this is a speculative investment for our club and we are willing to lose all. We have allocated 10% of our investments to spec stocks. We have not considered Macrovision as we do not think CD revenue would have much impact on their gross revenues even if they won a significant share of the market. So they are not in the speculative category.