newpontiac,
I see. Well here is my take, FWIW...
The tech looks good... yeah much of it has been done, but from what i've heard, this tech is well refined comparably to the competition. That doesn't mean someone else won't be right there with them, if not already. But I think the tech is at least "good enough" and with the proper marketing/sales management it can be a nice upgrade from many of the archaic lnet systems that have existed for years and have never been upgraded.
Like you and many others, I share the same speculation/worries about how the company is being run. I have been around for a long time, and there were times where I had enough confidence to think this was a slam dunk. Now I do not feel that way. If you were to ask my honest opinion of whether this thing ever even makes it back to a penny or not, I would say 50/50. I really don't know. Fluff PR's combined with insane dilution are so annoying, and when you are sitting there with your happy face on waiting for a home run to be hit, like I have, and all you get are strikeouts over and over, without a doubt, you begin to lose faith. Fluff PR, dilution, Fluff PR, dilution, nonsense QS stuff, Fluff PR, dilution, etc. etc. It is incredibly annoying really.
Having said that, I still believe in the potential, and personally would still take a chance on it. IMO it all rests on the shoulders of Host. Here is what I am most hopeful for....
I am hopeful that:
A) Host LOVES what went down in Philly.
B) I picture a negotiation with Host and SP and the wildcard Phil Marriott and hope that the folks at Host would have a hard time picking against Phil (and Doug really), being the 1st cousin(s) of Richard Marriott. If I picture myself in their shoes, I feel like it would be a hard thing for me to do, to tell the 1st cousin of the chairman of the board that I am going to pass on his company, especially if they have delivered in Philly like they said that they have.
I truly believe that the Marriotts (Phil and Doug) are our wildcard here. I see it as no coincidence that they were able to line up one of Hosts top hotels in Philly right off the bat. I feel that if that install is viewed as a success, then Tivus will ultimately get all of Host before it is all said and done.
I just hope that SP and SH don't run this company into the ground in the meantime. That is the concern for me.... the concern for me is not if there are similar techs already out there.
All IMHO, GLTU
