Repro Med Systems Inc (REPR)

[vlscout]

Well, i have tried to build a model like you have used, something like
Total revenue = res.q.vac + number of new f60 pumps sold * price per pump + number of f60s in use * average disposable revenue per pump per quarter.

with
- res-q-vac sales usd 230k (in the middle of last 9 quarters, higher than 140k last year, but lower than around 300k/q for the last 2 quarters)
- new pumps sold 1300 (this number was last disclosed in 10K, 4300 for fy11, so this assumes about 20pc growth from the quarterly number of fy11)
- price per pump usd 400 (10K says "list price" 520, but i am sure the distributors get their cut, also sales taxes might have to be considered; someone know the wholesale price of the pump?; not all sales go through distributors though)
- number of f60s in use: 12.2k (not disclosed in this years' 10K, but in prior years' 10K it said about 66pc of all pumps produced were still in use, therefore 66% * (17.5k+1k for q1))
- disposable rev per pump per q: usd 80 (usd 5.4 per tubing * avg tubing use as disclosed in 10K)

This yields 230k + 1300 * 400 + 12200*80 = roughly 1.7m

With cost increases, this would lead to eps around 0.8c / share

Of course, this does not account for any sales of the new needle, additional growth in pump sales as maybe indicated by the manufacturing expansion, but not sure how to incorporate that or what growth to estimate here.

Any comments appreciated! Feel free to play around with the formula and use your own estimates as you wish.