Wednesday, September 28, 2011 8:51:39 AM
Just based on the recent news, much can be deduced to give us investors an idea of where MRGN could or even should trade if they can complete the acquisition of the $25 million in gold reserves. Let’s talk about what the ”what if” they actually complete this acquisition released below:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=49324502
To add, the above acquisition is part of multiple properties as a current property is scheduled to have mining operations began on 1 Nov 2011. Here's what the PR stated on that part...
We'll see what further materializes on that property. For now, let's consider the "Big 3 Factors" that must not go ignored as brought to our attention by ScipioAfricanus:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67436994
Now let’s derive a ”potential” valuation for MRGN basically the same way as was previously derived considering if MGRN acquire the Gold reserves in excess of $25,000,000 that was recently PR-ed. Considering we’re talking about alluvial mining, there are some basic factors that we can consider. Keep in mind, this is a more simple type of mining versus your traditional hard rock or lode mining. If you were to research the Net Costs for alluvial mining, you would see that the Net Costs (or Net Expenses) for mining an alluvial mine is somewhere within $400 to $700 per ounce. For the purpose of this post, I will take it one step further and use a conservative Net Cost of $800 per ounce. With the price of gold currently being at $1600+ and growing, that’s a worst case scenario of $800 per ounce for Net Profit. That means that we can use a 50% profit margin for determining an Earnings Per Share (EPS) for this upcoming MGRN potential Fundamental Valuation.
To determine the EPS of a stock, you must use the fundamental formula below since we have already determined how we will derive Net Profit/Income as indicated below…
Net Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
MGRN stated in their PR above that “the company currently estimates the Gold Reserves on the property to be in excess of $25 million,” so we will use a bottom amount of $25 million instead of trying to figure out the excess. As a worst case scenario and to still remain conservative, let’s figure that when the company states… ”in excess of $25 million” that such does not include Net Expenses. Basically, if there is a 50% Net Profit Margin based on what I had explained above, then the difference is the 50% Net Expense Margin as we will conservatively derive Net Expenses as indicated below…
$25,000,000 x .50 = $12,500,000 = Net Expenses
Revenues – Net Expenses = Net Income/Profit
$25,000,000 - $12,500,000 = $12,500,000 Net Income/Profit
From the Transfer Agent, as of today, the MGRN OS was last confirmed to be approximately 8.7 billion shares as indicated in the post/link below:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67463522
That’s a little scary at first thought, but we are still fine as you can see below from deriving an EPS with using the 8.7 billion OS…
Net Income ÷ OS = EPS
$12,500,000 ÷ 8,700,000,000 Shares = .0014 EPS
Now you multiply the EPS by a Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio to determine where we should be trading. To better understand this logic of using the P/E Ratio, read the link below:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57154170
Using 12 as a conservative P/E Ratio would give us a price in the range of…
12 P/E Ratio x .0014 EPS = .0168 per share
However, the current P/E Ratio for the Gold Industry is 24.50 as indicated below:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/134conameu.html
This means that a more fair consideration for a price expectation if MRGN achieves their operational objectives would be as indicated below…
20.70 P/E Ratio x .0014 EPS = .028 per share
Based on ”potential” here with MGRN, the stock could be justified to fundamentally trade anywhere between .0168 and .0289 per share. When the company stated that their numbers were ”in excess” within their PR, that could mean some very significant amounts greater than $25 million depending on how conservative the company really knows how such is to be taken under consideration.
The key is going to see and continue watching to see if MGRN is going to close this $25 million gold acquisition. Also key, will be the key entities involved with such transaction outside of MGRN. So far, the market only slightly believes what MGRN has PR-ed, but if they announce the right partnership as I had hinted to below from previous PRs, then such issues of credibility would no longer exist as MGRN would have truly earned such:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=48625167
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Marquis-Tech-Holdings-Enters-bw-4077037324.html?x=0&.v=1
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=66437566
To add, per one of your earlier posts, just in case anyone was ever trying to doubt if MGRN is legit or not, I agree with your thoughts shared as to why I think it’s fair to take our chances…
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=66583623
These thoughts above are why I originally believe that MGRN was a solid "Lotto Play" at .0001 per share.
v/r
Sterling
Sterling's Trading & Investing Strategies:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39092516
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