aria2010,
For someone with your moniker, you certainly sound more beaten down than the circumstances warrant.
Yes, the timing(for just about any "speculative" security) could be better, due to macro.
But is Pona approval and it's range of potentials(not to mention 113) baked in to this stock price via some "new normal" context???
Hardly.
It's just that in this context, value isn't largely recognized until after the fact, so the value of securities like Ariad will continue to advance(in a wobbly, volatile channel)with pops and drops along the way, but will continue up, as the evident becomes more so and traders(the primary participants day to day) continue to trade.
However, this version of the new normal can still accommodate a major adjustment of this trading channel upward(the reverse of Gyms pitchfork downward adjustment that we witnessed in early August)-
and I believe this is likely, as pertinent facts continue to be revealed.
If you take any kind of a close look at relative performance in biotech, you can see that we continue to gain ground on the field(egs. exel, mnta, dndn, hgsi incy, IBB).
Therefore, if you're in for anything like the intermediate to long term, failure to commit to a significant position here may prove to be a poor(risk/reward)decision (since the base has just been significantly strengthened), and you could very well find yourself left in the dust.
Of course, JMO.
But, in light of my read of the overall Ariad situation(i.e. excellent risk/reward!), I'm all in.
Best,
bw
