Kyocera Corp (KYO)

[muputs]

Thunder, if you take a look at the CRB over the past year, there has been an across the board improvement. Even the grains, which were in a hellish seven or eight year bear market, are perking up. Energy, grains, livestock, and softs all had a fairly good year, and are expected to remain strong in the coming year. The only non-participant was the base metals. They came off of a very low base and didn't move that much at all.

http://www.lme.co.uk/data_prices/price_graphs.asp

Here is a link to the LME charts. Take some time and run a five year, three month, chart on aluminum, copper, tin, zinc, and nickel. Excluding nickel, (which has its own little world for a number of reasons), they are all within 15% to 20% of multiyear lows. This is a direct result of the intense slowdown in the worldwide industrial economy. Thirty dollar oil is not helping the matter at all either. Inventories on all of the base metals are at multi year highs. The minor, specialty metals are also looking bad. Titanium, berylium, palladium are just plain terrible.

I don't know if you are aware of it, but the copper market has a very high correlation to the DJIA on any given day. If the stock market is up, copper will almost always be as well on that day. However, the copper market closes at 1:00 PM EST, and the stock market at 4:00 PM. When the Dow is off at 1:00, copper almost invariably closes down. The stock market was down all of Dec, so was copper. The stock market is up in Jan, so is copper.
On friday, at 1:00, the Dow was down. Look at Friday's candle print in copper.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?type=future%2Cindex&symbols=RHGH03 &period=D&varminutes=&bartype=candle&symlist=RHG&month=H&year=03&study=VOI&STUDY 0=&STUDY1=&STUDY2=&STUDY3=&bardensity=LOW&size=MEDIUM&r=&x=46&y=13

So why was PD up so much on Fri ? Who knows? Maybe accumulation on slightly better than average volume. Maybe Paulohl is dead on in his ewave analysis. I remain skeptical until it decisivly breaks out of the current trading range and the inventories start to come down. Until then, every time the hedge funds push it to the top of the range, the producers will sell it without mercy. That is the definition of rangebound.