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The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (09/21/11)_TY_George



* Wednesday, September 21, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat





A “Selling Climax” occurred at the 8/9 low which came in near 110 on the SPY and 1100 on SPX and most “Selling Climax” low are tested at some point. Today market sold off and produce a TRIN close of 4.00. Closing TRIN close above 3.00 normally produce a low in the market the same day to as late as two days later. This indicator doesn’t work all the time but does give clues that the market is approaching a low. Ideally we would like to see the 8/9 Selling Climax low tested and possibly end up with a bullish signal. If this decline continued, most like the 100 day average of the TRIN would be pushed to 1.45 range and signal an intermediate term low. Also nice that the three days going into the recent highs that the ticks approached the +900 close which was a bearish sign. Current 100 day TRIN is coming in at 1.41 an interring the bullish intermediate term level. Stay flat for now.





Above is the shorter term look at the buy signal generated on the weekly GDX/GLD ratio. The set up comes when the weekly RSI of the GDX/GLD ratio hits 30 or below, which appeared at the end of June. The buy signal is triggered when the weekly Slow Stochastics of the GDX/GLD ratio closes above 20 and this buy trigger came the first week of July and at a price level on GDX near 56. The Slow Stochastics turned down below 20 and then turned up above 20 again in late August and triggered another buy signal near 65 on GDX. Also the weekly MACD produced a positive divergence and had a bullish crossover in late August and triggered a buy signal also near 65 on GDX.



On last nights report we said, “Above is the Commitment of Traders report last dated September 16. Over the last two years when the Commercials had short interests in the minus 2200 range or less the market was near an intermediate term low. We where looking for a pull back near the 1650 range on gold but with the Commercials reducing their short positions in an area where lows have formed, then its not likely gold will pull back much more from current levels. We may be going long GLD soon. Also gold stocks may have started on the next wave up and gold most likely will participate.” Today we looked into our gold studies which suggested the sideways consolidation since mid August is about done and the next rally up should be starting soon. We went long GLD on tonight’s close at 173.59.
Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01( stop at 59.50). Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.