"The basic pattern is that significant news causes a price rise, in proportion to the perceived value of the news"
well yea..except there is no basic pattern...the pps can begin to pop without news..thyen go further once news is released..or it could wait on the news or there could be a delayed reaction..
and the pop could be a heck of a lot more than anyones percieved value..it can go way beyond anyones percieved value...
"Because of heavy trading the price usually overruns - spikes up and then pulls back to settle at a new level (this is dead normal for early stage biotechs)"
the price will spike and then settle back to where it was or at some new support level...yes it is normal but its normal for any stock not just "early stage biotechs"...
"1) a trend to a slow increase in SP in anticipation of more news (the strength of this trend is directly related to the frequency and regularity with which the company releases news and the usual strength (or lack thereof in some cases) of the PRs (KBLB has a good history of solid PRs with real significance, IMHO)"
a increase in share price before news sometimes does happen but it is not directly related to anything you stated...it is directly related to that news being leaked out to some..and that is usually on purpose..
if kblb had a good history of solid pr's with REAL significance, kblb would not be 9 cents a share..
"a tendency to drift down as the most recent news becomes "old" and some begin to worry whether the company is making progress"
well if the pr's are pouring out of kblb why would any news be "old"...and if the news was truly "significant" why would anyone worry about kblb's failure to progress?..
"It's a question of the balance between 1 and 2 plus the influence of external factors (market conditions, etc.)"
its a question of a whole ton of things..
"Because of the great difficulty in calculating timing in this case (there are just too many factors we don't know about: which GMs KBLB is doing, in what order, etc) I suspect that even traders are reluctant to trade here"
just about everyone who is in kblb has admitted to trading some of their shares when possible..as for real traders, they dont care about GM'S or what order kblb is doing anything...they use charts..and if kblb ends up having a significant move, they will come here and trade it..and most wont have a clue what kblb is or does..it doesnt matter to them..will they stay?..no
heres a clue folks...you aint getting pure spider silk in the "fall"...im guessing the next timeline you will be given is somewhere "around the new year"...then everyone can ponder what "around the new year" means...why?..because thats how things go in the stinky pinkies...and you are already being spoon fed the idea that delays are inevitable...so when it happens you will be told it is "dead standard" and kblb really is progressing at incredible speed for an "early stage boitech"....
you will get news to cause a spike..lab, updates on whoever is looking at monster silk for body armour, whatever new thing they can muster up...the lab is going to be great, the company looking at monster silk will have given encouraging feedback, kblb will be "ramping up" yet again but this time with the new lab everyone will have hope that they are truly "ramping up", there will be new developments which are on the way that of course will simply be astounding...and anything else that the ceo can throw into a hodge podge of a pr...
and then after the pop, after his cronies and masters have had a chance to make their money and sell, then the bad news will come...it will be sugar coated to taste a little better...and there will be those who will insist its all actually good news and by god wont sell a share and havent yet..etc etc
thems my opinions...we shall see
