The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (09/07/11)_TY_George
* Wednesday, September 7, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop hit at 170 = gain 15.5%.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
In general the TRIN stays above 1.00 in a declining market and below 1.00 in a rising market and the TRIN/SPY ratio helps to identify that trend visually. Therefore when the SPY is in an uptrend than TRIN/SPY trends down and vice versa. Divergence show up when the SPY makes a higher high and the TRIN/SPY ratio makes a higher low (TRIN/SPY ratio should make lower low as SPY makes higher high to keep the parallel). Notice in the current consolidation that the SPY has made a higher high and the TRIN/SPY ratio made a higher low which is a bearish sign. A similar occurrence appeared at the July high (see chart). SPY may make an attempt to test the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders top (near 126 range on SPY) and if the TRIN/SPY ratio makes a higher low as SPY makes a higher high then a sell signal could develop. Obama gives his job speech tomorrow night at 7:00 pm Eastern and could produce affects in the market. For now we will remain flat the SPX.
GLD appears to have peaked near 185. Previous times on GLD when the weekly RSI got above 75 and the Chaikin Oscillator traded above 100m, a multi week pull back occurred and we are expecting that here. Strong support comes in near the previous trading range highs which are near 155 level. In weekly up-trends the RSI normally finds support near the 50 range and a low in GLD and something we will be looking for on the retracement. Bigger trend is up in GLD, but a pull back near 155 in the coming weeks is possible.
Above is the monthly XAU/GLD ratio dating back to late 1983. The monthly XAU chart is second window up from the bottom. The XAU/GLD ratio shows when gold stocks are expensive or cheap compared to gold. The speed of the rise and fall of this ratio determine by the RSI help to find bullish and bearish signals. When this ratio plunges and the monthly RSI falls below 35 then a bottom is not far off and sets up the signals. The second part of the signal comes when the Monthly slow Stochastics of the XAU/GLD ratio turns up from below 20. In September the monthly RSI hit 33 (below 35) and the monthly Slow Stochastics hit 17 meeting the requirements. Right now the monthly RSI sets at 36.58 and the Slow Stochastics sets at 20.77. Since this chart is on the monthly timeframe then the Slow Stochastics needs to close above 20 on the close of September 30 to generate the buy signal. The previous six signals were all successful and four lead to over 100% gains. The two that lead to less then 100% gain came in 1998 and 1999. It is worth noting that in the last 28 years only one time before (2008 low) has gold stocks been this cheap compared to gold. We are long GDX at 57.01 with a stop at 59.50. If the stop is hit would imply a pull back to previous low near 54 which we will look for another bullish setup.
Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01( stop at 59.50). Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, September 7, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Flat
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop hit at 170 = gain 15.5%.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
In general the TRIN stays above 1.00 in a declining market and below 1.00 in a rising market and the TRIN/SPY ratio helps to identify that trend visually. Therefore when the SPY is in an uptrend than TRIN/SPY trends down and vice versa. Divergence show up when the SPY makes a higher high and the TRIN/SPY ratio makes a higher low (TRIN/SPY ratio should make lower low as SPY makes higher high to keep the parallel). Notice in the current consolidation that the SPY has made a higher high and the TRIN/SPY ratio made a higher low which is a bearish sign. A similar occurrence appeared at the July high (see chart). SPY may make an attempt to test the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders top (near 126 range on SPY) and if the TRIN/SPY ratio makes a higher low as SPY makes a higher high then a sell signal could develop. Obama gives his job speech tomorrow night at 7:00 pm Eastern and could produce affects in the market. For now we will remain flat the SPX.
GLD appears to have peaked near 185. Previous times on GLD when the weekly RSI got above 75 and the Chaikin Oscillator traded above 100m, a multi week pull back occurred and we are expecting that here. Strong support comes in near the previous trading range highs which are near 155 level. In weekly up-trends the RSI normally finds support near the 50 range and a low in GLD and something we will be looking for on the retracement. Bigger trend is up in GLD, but a pull back near 155 in the coming weeks is possible.
Above is the monthly XAU/GLD ratio dating back to late 1983. The monthly XAU chart is second window up from the bottom. The XAU/GLD ratio shows when gold stocks are expensive or cheap compared to gold. The speed of the rise and fall of this ratio determine by the RSI help to find bullish and bearish signals. When this ratio plunges and the monthly RSI falls below 35 then a bottom is not far off and sets up the signals. The second part of the signal comes when the Monthly slow Stochastics of the XAU/GLD ratio turns up from below 20. In September the monthly RSI hit 33 (below 35) and the monthly Slow Stochastics hit 17 meeting the requirements. Right now the monthly RSI sets at 36.58 and the Slow Stochastics sets at 20.77. Since this chart is on the monthly timeframe then the Slow Stochastics needs to close above 20 on the close of September 30 to generate the buy signal. The previous six signals were all successful and four lead to over 100% gains. The two that lead to less then 100% gain came in 1998 and 1999. It is worth noting that in the last 28 years only one time before (2008 low) has gold stocks been this cheap compared to gold. We are long GDX at 57.01 with a stop at 59.50. If the stop is hit would imply a pull back to previous low near 54 which we will look for another bullish setup.
Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Sold on 8/8/11 SLV at 38.32 for gain of 11.4%-Long SLV at 34.39 on 7/5/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GDX at 57.01( stop at 59.50). Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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