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Re: WayCoolJr post# 394

Friday, 09/02/2011 3:52:35 PM

Friday, September 02, 2011 3:52:35 PM

Post# of 16750
Jan strikes should be great for playing this. Keep in mind two things:

You'll be paying extra premium (over Oct, e.g.)
There should be a great runup - take your basis off the table during the runup because if the interim is not an "approvable - stop the trial" result (I'm still only giving this a 15-25% chance) then the share price could well drop again for awhile.

I think such a drop would be temporary, as we'll see the CRLM & Dignity(ph2) trials yield enrollment news soon as well as rumors about a partnership spiking us here and there. Also, the above means there's about a 80% chance (IMO) that we do NOT get an approvable interim result. Those are not betting odds unless you've taken your basis off the table and are playing with house money!!

Regards,
Trond