Fibonacci "Golden Ratio" of 1.6180339887498949

[nightstocker]

Here's some fibo analysis:

http://www.hedge-hog.com/hhu/MARK/MC1117.html
Market Analysis --November 17, 2002

Last week we finished with: " It's just a matter of time now until the buyers get the fever and start moving the market up. Stock is now in strong hands (http://www.hedge-hog.com/hhu/hhua.html) and the strong hands will be ever ready to dole it out to our weak hands and use a lot hype to make it all happen. That's how the game is played. At any rate a 90 day movement upwards to sideways from the October 2002 low is a fairly good bet at the present time."

So, the Elliott Wave class is now in session. This week, students, we examine the DOW:



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Chart by Bigcharts.Com (TM)

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So far there's an ABC in place. Can you see it? From 7177 to 8580 was a nice A wave. Then we pulled back to 8161. We then moved up to 8841. Then we pulled back to 8237. We are now moving up and what's the target? 8841? 9129? 9749?

Why these numbers? Well 8841 is the last peak. Then we would be doing a double top or failed 5th Elliott wave. If we surpass that then 9129 would be a target for the completion of a wave 5. And if the the wave 5 really has a lotta spunk, then 9749 could be a target. OR. We could be doing an ABC where the A went from Oct. 11 to Nov. 6, the B went from Nov. 7 to Nov. 13 and the C is currently underway. We are merely looking at support/resistance at this point in time.

If we look at our Gann wheel, we get the following numbers from 7177: 8280, 8570, 8870, 9170, 9330, 9470, 9780. Of those numbers, we appear to have used 8570. 9129 might be related to 9170 and 9749 might be related to 9780. Related? Gann didn't have a computer. He did it all with geometry. Let's give the guy some leeway.

And if we look at Fibo numbers: 8161 was NOT a 38% pullback from 8580. 9028 would be a target from the the 8161 pullback. 8208 would be a pullback target from the 8841 high if the market does soften here. If 8208 is hit, then upside targets would be 9236 or 9872. So Fibo numbers are not in play here thus far. That means we might be in a diagonal wave. It can still be 1 3 5, but it's not IMPULSE. If it's not impulse, it's CORRECTIVE. If it's corrective, it means the upside is limited and there's more consolidation in sight and that's the explanation which makes the most sense.

There's this IRAQI thing looming in front of us. There's the KYOTO accord troubling Canada. And there's this matter of regaining credibility since Wall Street has LIED to us. The type of Elliott Waves we get will be determined by the type of group behavior we get. That's what old Ralphie was trying to tell us 70 or 80 years ago.