In today's era a wildcat drilled with 3-D seismics probably has as much as a 75% chance of hitting oil. Commercialty depends largly on the volume of rock producing the hydrocarbons, its' permeability and porosity.
The Belizean geology south of the Maya Mtns. is pretty much a mosaic of various descriptions largly because this portion of Belize represents the southern edge of the North American tectonic plate. The fields will be most likely be small, but numerous.
Moving offshore our prospects become much larger for hitting an elephant. Legislation needs to be submitted to the Legislature to allow drilling offshore within say 50-100 miles of the offshore Mexican border. Obviously drilling would be off limits within 10 miles of any Belizean reefs, so long as the prevailing currents are northward. Spain is currently drilling such a prospective elephant off of Cuba, while at the same time Cuba has scrubbed some oil contractrs with Sherritt International, really putting a dent in their stock.
That is why they call these places banana republics, if too much wealth builds up in any one spot or industry then the governments move in and nationalize. Get in, make your money and be ready to get kicked out. Belize, with a more British business environment (tradition), probably is more likely to to honor its covenants and commitments. Oiljob
