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Saturday, 08/27/2011 8:56:40 PM

Saturday, August 27, 2011 8:56:40 PM

Post# of 163718
I find myself reading the contributions here, and see that venerable drex now has a small position. I posted last when price was 85 cents. Here is something the board never talks about, and I talked around it in my overly long post, which tried to explain this fact: CGS stocks are in a severe bear market. I think they are ahead of the game in this regard. Yes, I think over the next 3 to 5 years, western stock markets will follow cgs down and down and down. Recently somebody posted that he has never seen stocks trading with PE multiples of around 1. Probably because none of us have been around that long, but there was a time, in the 1930s. This was also a terrible economic cycle, and the investing public felt there was fraud "on every street corner." This time is coming yet again, and SIAF will not escape it. The reason that some companies traded at a pe of 1 or sub 2 at that time, is that THEY ARE THE ONES WHO SURVIVED TO TELL THE TALE. The ones who did not survive had sub one PE's, obviously....gone, caput. This too: siaf has set aggressive goals for itself, so any honest miss will just be a clarion call for the F word to be sounded for all to hear. The 5 letter F word, not the 4 letter one. And we know too they do not update guidance, I suppose no biggie, but again, this is not how we as western investors expect good management to react...anyway, this is detail stuff. remember, to go from its current price to when I wrote my long post just several weeks ago now requires something like a 30% price appreciation, which is not going to happen. The stock will test its old support at 48 cents or so at some point in the next several months, and I say this not due to the stock itself, but to the chgs sector getting ripped to pieces, and more importantly, I expect the down draft to continue at some point in the S and P later in the upcoming week, and this time, it ain't stopping ....see ya at a PE of 1, or 20 cents, and that is if the company is ultimately successful, but it will get there first, imho.

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