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Re: Bobwins post# 13463

Friday, 06/10/2005 11:19:03 AM

Friday, June 10, 2005 11:19:03 AM

Post# of 173904
Hi Bob. Some follow up questions about your VPHM forecast:

I think they will do $1 pretax in 2005 so .65 to you.

Does that pretax number include:
a) milestone payments under the royalty arrangement?
b) derivative income (loss)?

I'm having a hard time coming up with a decent valuation target here because I'm not sure how I should treat the milestone payments. They obviously have some value, because they can be used to pay off debt, fund R&D, etc....but they will end at some point in the future. You felt that the sum of those payments for pleconaril could be as high as $65MM. Has the company discussed the timetable for potential FDA approval on this? IF approved and all milestone payments are received, then all subsequent revs would drop down to the % of sales of the drug (i.e. royalties?).

The recent insider buying is impressive...
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