Still "here" and sticking to my prior position that PPHM was probably a trading double between now and Feb 15 from $1.80 and possibly a triple if it moved lower. Bot a couple of thousand shares every nickle down to $1.20 as did many I "assume". This is still a trivial amount compared to my overall position and I will use it for trading over the coming months. Traded out of some today.
Am at full speculative position size. Though I would like to double or triple that size into investment grade, it is impossible without real, hard fundamental change. (In all fairness biotechs have been known to fail in phase III no matter how many shots on goal they have and many of PPHM shots are linked to same compound.) Such fundamental change would include some combination of the following:
1. BOD strengthening (see 18 prior comments for detail)
2. Early stage partnering with enough cash to remove "going concern" accounting notation and strengthen balance sheet.
3. Early stage partnering with enough cash to suspend ATM
4. Complete overhaul of PR, IR and communication strategy.
5. FDA date for Cotara leading to a defined phase III and or SPA.
6. Great interim randomized data for Bavi in NSCLC.
7. Great data in viral apps
8. Imaging deal
I am very encouraged by the aggressive pursuit of prostate cancer
by the scientist/regulators/mgmt. signalled by the opening to recruitment in prostate testing on the gov clinical site. (I can not for the life of me understand why this does not merit a one sentence PR.)
The pursuit of prostate cancer carries two positives from my perspective. One, it is an absolutely huge market dwarfing brain cancer for example. Two, it signals again mgmt committment to proving Bavi as a broad spectrum drug with an entirely unique mechanism of action.
As an aside, this week witnessed GOOG buy Motorola Mobility for 12 Billion dollars (!!!!!) largely to bolster their patentable position in order to defend their market. The 12 billion may prove cheap at a multiple. As I have stated before PPHM has done an A plus job in surrounding their technology with patents (I believe over 400 by now). "If" parts of the PPHM platforms confirm our suspicions re cancer and viral activity or combo activity this patent position re the cell surface and PS technology going forward is massively valuable.
"Time" re FDA Cotara and timing re seasonality continue to be on the traders' side of the equation IMO. My technical work indicates a short term technical breakout to the upside at $1.41 with a short term target of between $1.79 and $1.90. Instead of selling rallies I would now be buying dips as long as $1.17 is not taken out (if I were purely technically trading the pattern). If market gets real nasty and $1.17 taken out, then IMO I would go back to slow accumulation every 5-10 cents lower as we get closer to FDA Cotara.
IMO only , todays buying did not have the characteristics of short covering. Since there was no real news and it was a selling day, the shorts that want to cover usually sit on the bid and, if shown enough size to make a difference, might come up a penny. This looked like real long buying on significant buying volume to create the breakout. Time will tell but PPHM should work higher in steps. The day we see a strong PM session in the stock will be an interesting day.
Good luck to all
RRdog
