Wish I could share your optimism, Eco. But I think we're heading lower, slowly till the end of the year and then more rapidly late 2012. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm keeping my eyes open for potential shorts.
Technically, the market seems to be in a 4th up wave of an Elliot Wave cycle that began in May. If that's true, we'll probably retest the recent lows pretty soon. Longer term, the fact that we can't exceed the neckline of the Feb-July head-and-shoulders formation is somewhat troubling. Coupling that with the market's position below its 200 and 150 day MAs doesn't paint a rosy picture.
Fundamentally, we've just come through a pretty decent earnings season, but the Dow can't top 13K. While Fitch reaffirmed our credit rating, I think the damage was done by S&P--albeit more psychological than anything. (Honestly, I don't know why anyone listens to ratings agencies anymore considering how badly they missed housing in 2008.)
One silver lining for MNLU is that Charles Nenner--the famed, or perhaps infamous to some, cycle technician--just released a buy on CHK because his "cycles" indicate nat gas will start moving. Take that for what it's worth, but the guy has a pretty decent history of calling trend tops and bottoms.
I'm staying long MNLU, as penny stocks have a funny way of not caring what the rest of the market does. If this company can pull off a fraction of what they promise, I'll be happy. Besides, waiting a little longer only decreases my tax bill.
AI
