Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks

[jackhartmann]

Portfolio up 2.7%, Dow up 2.68%, Nasdaq up 2.80%, S&P500 up 2.56% J-Blimps down 1.0%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy up 2.8%, Gorilla Hunters up 3.3%, Gilder2001 up 1.2%, OC-192 down 0.0%.

NYSE Volume: 1.31 bln...Adv: 1932...Dec: 1118
Up Volume 979.22 Down Volume 321.94 day 2
New Highs 107 New Lows 31 Huge day 3

Nasdaq Volume: 1.93 bln...Adv: 2208...Dec: 1566
Up Volume 1355.80 Down Volume 522.74 day 1
New Highs 63 New Lows 129 12 days of days of 2/1

Put/Call ratio 0.68 (Range 0.48 to 0.68)
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.

April natural gas $5.62 per million British thermal units. Up 26 cents.

VIX 30.69 down
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.

Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) 1735.70 +58.80 +3.51% good strength, average volume.

Collapse of the day
Oil Services ($OSX) 121.84 -2.39 -1.92% American Petroleum Institute posted a 8.9 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories as of the week ended March 23. Analysts, on average, predicted a 1 million- to 1.4 million-barrel drop, according to a Bridge News survey.

QQQ at $43 Chart: Up on low volume Blocks: 821/744 pos for 1 day. Volume%: 61

One stock

TranSwitch (TXCC) down 19.87%: Banc of America Sec downgrades to MKT PERFORM from BUY; yesterday TXCC announced that due to increased weakness in North American demand its revenues would decline 26% sequentially in Q1 to $38 mln from $51 mln; firm believes that poor broadbased North American and European visibility and slowing end market demand for broadband communications equipment will create an uphill battle for TXCC to reach its revised guidance for a flat June quarter.
Note: In trouble as the rest of the IC chip companies.

Portfolio Watch

Scholastic Corp (SCHL) up 4.98%: Announces that it has decided not to bid for selected eToys assets. On Monday, SCHL confirmed that it made a contingent bid for inventory at $0.30 on the dollar, or $8 mln, as part of the auction process in ETYS' bankruptcy proceedings. SCHL shares fell 16% in trading Monday.
Note: Eight million was really cheap, but who wants old toys.

Demand for fiber continues to outstrip Corning’s production capability. Recognize that this is the main reason that Corning appears to be looking at Lucent’s [LU] fiber business. Pricing is stable, but there is a shift to European and Asian customers from the high-growth North American market in 2000 . Corning did announce that it received a huge order for premium fiber from Charter Communications [CHTR: Nasdaq], the first such purchase by a cable company.
http://www.ideaadvisor.com/article/article.asp?aid=9947

Watch List things to watch but not trade

Corvis (CORV) Optical networking site Light Reading reporting that sources close to CORV have confirmed that the company will announce "at least two" new customers as early as the next few weeks. Corvis currently has only three customers (WCG, Q, BRW), all of which own stock in the company, making additional customer wins key
Note: Yawn. Let’s see the contract before getting excited.

After speaking to the 4 major German carriers at the European wireless conference at CeBIT, CIBC analyst believes that carriers will reduce their cell phone subsidies to preserve cash flow due to 3G licence spending; if this happens it dampens the growth of the strongest replacement marketplace in the world (Europe) and would put the low end of Nokia's (NOK) estimate of 450M -500M handsets at risk.
Note: The number sold for 2001 was once estimated to be 600M.

RealNetworks (RNWK) down 4.87% Inks 3-yr agreement with Major League Baseball to make RealNetworks the exclusive platform for a broad range of online services, including live audio webcasts of all MLB games.
Note: $10 for baseball games all season. Pay per listen is beginning and RNWK is pushing the envelope.

Ericsson (ERICY) has sold its remaining stake in Jupiter Networks (JNPR) that will result in a one-time gain of $536.9 million in the first quarter. According to an Ericsson statement, the cell phone maker "continues to work closely with Juniper Networks in offering carrier-class IP infrastructure products to the market."
Note: Think how much ERICY could had if they sold last summer.

Texas Instruments (TXN) Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a RECOMM LIST rating and price target of $46; firm says TXN is arguably the major chipmaker most leveraged to the wireless communications market; says no segment of the electronics market is yet showing signs of recovery, but the wireless market, which "got sick first," has had nearly a year to recuperate and firm believes is likely to be the first to recover; believe that TXN stock is the most obvious semiconductor destination for money flow following any sign of cyclical recovery.
Note: TXN never went down 80% like the others.

JNI Corp (JNIC) Bear Stearns downgrades to NEUTRAL from ATTRACTIVE; cites weak Sun server market (accounts for 90% of JNIC revenues) and strategic challenges in terms of competition with other larger industry players. Firm reduces Q1 forecast to $0.06 from $0.10, 2001 to $0.40 from $0.80, and 2002 to $0.60 from $1.00
Note: I didn’t know SUNW was that high of JNIC revs.

Rejecting calls for price caps on wholesale electricity, President Bush said his administration "does not and will not support price controls." Bush said the energy problem will take time to solve. "We must have a strategy to keep the wheels running and the lights on," he said. A good public energy policy increases supply and encourages conservation, he said.
Note: Utilities are getting tempting as no CO2 rules and no price caps.

QUALCOMM (QCOM) Up 5.74% Wall St Journal online reporting that China Unicom (CHU) will spend 20 bln yuan, or $2.42 bln, to build out its CDMA network by 2002; in mid-February a CHU executive cited a figure of $1.8 bln.
Note: Always hearing the China card, Just be nice if the revenues materialized.

Cutting marginal tax rates is the best way to insure that America keeps its commanding lead as the top economy in the world, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said Tuesday. O'Neill dismissed calls for an immediate tax rebate to stimulate the economy now, saying that only a permanent change in tax rates would change people's consumption habits.
President Bush said the American consumer needs tax relief immediately, if not yesterday. He said he strongly supports decreasing taxes retroactive to Jan. 1, 2001. But "America needs more than a pick-me-up," he said. Only long-term tax cuts will restore long-term prosperity. Bush said the people had elected him to "look for warnings of economic trouble ahead and to heed them and to act."
Note: Same team, different opinion.

IPSCO Inc. (IPS) down 3.38% Company warns Q1 (Mar) will be $0.10-0.14 per share, current First Call estimate is $0.22; believes unfavorable conditions for the North American steel industry have become as bad as they will get in this cycle
Note: Only 9900 shares traded.


Mr. Buffett said he would start buying shares again "when businesses sell for less in the market than they're worth." On Tuesday Mr. Buffett reiterated his aversion to tech stocks, saying he hasn't bought any shares in the sector despite the Nasdaq Composite Index's plunge over the past year. He added, however, that it wasn't "inconceivable" for him to change his mind and invest in a telecommunications or dot-com stock. "I'd have to understand it, and it would have to be selling for less than it's worth. I don't see either of those things happening, but I don't rule anything out," he said.
Note: How can he not understand a MSFT or INTC. Even my nontech mother understands those two companies.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) Sun's VP/Treasurer, George Reyes, at SG Cowen's Global Tech Conference, reports that visibility is extremely limited; literally, "week-to-week", says Europe and Asia/Pacific are so far so good; analyst maintains NEUTRAL rating, has enormous respect for management's focus and execution prowess, but sees no hurry to buy stock at current levels.
Note: We are still weak in NA otherwords.

The level of short sales not yet closed out, known as short interest, rose 4.8% to a record 3,608,599,871 shares in the month through March 12, up from 3,444,789,352 shares in February and topping the previous high hit in December. The figures include Nasdaq small- and large-capitalization stocks and reflect transactions through March 15, allowing extra days to complete settlement.
Note: We are at an inflection where the shorts continue to press their bets and the longs have run into money markets.

Palm Inc (PALM) Reports Q3 earnings of $0.02 a share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.01, vs year-ago earnings of $0.03; revenues rose 72.9% to $470.85 mln from a year-ago of $272.29 mln. Company warns for Q4; sees revenues in the range of $300 to $315 mln (vs est. of $584 mln) and loss of $0.08 per share (vs est. of $0.03 net);
Note: Ouch. Good thing we are out. Wife’s expensive toy idea was right.

Sanyo Electric Co., which makes two-fifths of mobile phone batteries worldwide, said it will cut 6,000 jobs to trim costs as earnings may fall in the next six months on slower demand for mobile phones and personal computers.
Note: 40% of the battery market is a stat I had not seen before.

Nortel Networks (NT) Company warns for Q1; sees per share loss of $0.10-0.12 and revenues of about $6.1-6.2 bln; below the Company's previous estimates of $6.3 bln of revenue and loss per share from operations of $0.04 provided on February 15, 2001. Consensus Q1 EPS estimate is ($0.03) and revenue est. is $6.323 bln. Company is planning further headcount reductions and now expects an aggregate net reduction, by mid year 2001, of approximately 15,000 employees; "We continue to feel the impact of the economic downturn in the United States and are now seeing customers globally assess its effect on their businesses," said John Roth, Nortel's chief executive.
Note: JDSU will be next to warn.

Turkey's economy minister Kemal Dervis admits the nation needs $10-12 billion more foreign aid to lift the nation out of a financial crisis.
Note: Knock, knock. Show me the money. Watch this in the corner of your eye.

Quote of the Day

Thomas Galvin, chief investment officer at Credit Suisse First Boston, believes they are.

"We've really run the gamut of bad news and I think people have grown tired of it," "There's no question that this market has to learn how to walk before it can run again," Thomas Galvin, chief investment officer at Credit Suisse First Boston
Note: Cliches are everywhere.

Summary

A lazy day watching the market trickle up. Next week is RFMD and MOT and the real bad news will start.

Jack