Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Smoot, Social Gage and some E-wave.

I agree with you that the government reactive in solving problems and proactive in creating them. The last time short sales were prohibited was in 2008, well after the selloff had been established. Maybe the government thinks it is trying to learn from past mistakes and pre-empt a selloff, much like stimulus spending. I also forgot to use the evening news as a similar barometer of social mood. It was only after the markets lost over 15% that the evening made the global financial selloff its featured story. These are contrarian. Another sentiment gage is the Investor's Intelligence. The bullish reading ticked up and the bears ticked down on August 10 despite the huge swings over the last week. This one is coincidental.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx

As I pointed out in SPX vs DAX vs FTSE, the SPX made a waterfall selloff, which is tough to count e-waves as wave 5 exends multiple times. The DAX and FTSE were easier to call a bottom because wave 3 extended.

The SPX futures shows a nearly double zigzag, which started August 8th. A 5% to 10% selloff is in the works. I'm considering either a corrective wave down, indicating another week of consolidation (5% - 7% drop), or a motive wave (7% to 10% drop)ending below recent lows.

http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=SPU1&data=Z30&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk