Global Value Investing

[rjeezy007]

Based on their F2011 estimate of 0.05, GNK would need to incur a loss of 0.62 for Q3 and Q4 combined as it had EPS of 0.38 and 0.29 in Q1 and Q2. That seems a little harsh, we would probably have to see a plunge in spot rates for that to happen. Although, this could happen if we see another worldwide recession.

The EPS target of $(1.02) seems kind of harsh too. Since 2007, their worst year was 2008 and they still had an EPS of 2.84. The Company is pretty good at controlling costs and has a history of doing that. Due to the increase in ships, EPS might be lower because of higher amortization but this is a non-cash charge anyways.

If EPS does tank in H2 2011 or 2012, it will lower the price further and present an even better buying opportunity since the industry is cyclical.