RCKS
I'm a bit mixed here on the interpretation of this chart. For instance, towards end of day over past two days we essentially gave up the gains of the intraday sell off & mid day up move.
But, I do get your drift here....That is, I think that this market is very strong given the very bad news and early sell offs of late.
It just points to me as being an overly bullish trend with some consolidation given our overbought status and just a bit volatile given the circumstances.
However the "circumstances" here are very significant and subject to change and that could drive currencies crazy (e.g.. Big Money).
The "footprints of big money" in the various currency spreads are easy to see at times, but often not easy to interpret. So reluctantly I'm saying that we are seeing some gradual flight to safety given the low volume and the type of currency moves, but that could change in a heartbeat (in either direction).
That said, I'm thinking that we will have some added chop here given the mixed market reaction I'm seeing, but we could get a nice move up if Congress gets its collective act together (i.e., the uncertainty here is not good and feeding the bears nicely in my view...so a change will be good for the markets if it occurs).
So far though, the political maneuvering looks too cynical to me. So I expect further turmoil and market uncertainty intraday at times (which is not good for aggressive moves up to the upside other than short covering at different times of the day).
However, I haven't done a recent count on the Tea Party folks (and they are really running this show/turmoil) for good or bad.
Not sure that these guys will even agree to Rep Boehners plan. They are very ideological and not subject to pragmatic thoughts like Cantor, Boner and Obama. So I have doubts that we will get some good concessions here in the next couple of days even though the House and Senate plans are not all that far apart. That is, Boener has less control over his forces than Reid, so that is a problem since tea party forces are driving the train here in most respects.
Overall, I'm not sure that there are enough votes as yet to guarantee that their won't be further trouble ahead or not (e.g. there could be a more substantial sell off vs a modest selloff due to Congress abdicating its responsibility to lift the debt ceiling after the debt they already authorized). A very serious question IMHO (especially for market stability).
Regardless, this points to how very "iffy" this market is currently (and we are seeing it in the charts of late). But I want to reiterate, its hard to ignore the very bullish posture overall we are seeing in the charts and sentiment of late.
Once we get thru all this and the subsequent market chop....we should see a very nice move up given how resilient the markets have been in the face of all this negative news. Mike
AI
