Biotech Values

[spartex]

DNDN article

FEATURED EXPERT: Dr. Scott W. & Nadine Wong
02-JUN-05

Nadine Wong, editor of the BioTech Stock Report newsletter, discusses a recent announcement regarding Provenge. Learn about this novel dendritic cell-based treatment for prostate cancer and find out what its Phase III clinical results indicate. Then learn how the market reacted to all the news. Afterward, discover what this expert has to say about Dendreon’s share price.

Unappreciated -- Dendreon

At the first of the year, Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN ) took it in the chin over an announcement that Provenge, the company’s novel dendritic cell-based treatment for prostate cancer, did not inhibit time to disease progression compared to standard treatment alone. However, the company did note that patients receiving Provenge did have an increase in survival time.

At this year’s meeting, Dendreon and their clinical collaborators reported that the Phase III clinical results indicated that Provenge was associated with an increase in survival from 21.4 to 25.9 months. These results are nothing to sneeze at, as an increase in survival is an important and relevant marker for cancer treatment.

The Street’s reaction or lack of makes Nadine Wong and her team think that there are still lingering questions regarding the statistical analysis. That is, if the results were truly real, as the number of patients enrolled in the study was not large. There was also concern that the increase in survival might be due to other factors, such as age, weight and diet of the patient population, which would be unrelated to Provenge.

Armed with this clinical data, Dendreon intends to pool clinical data from two ongoing Phase III clinical trials with the existing data to ensure the reproducibility of the results. Although it is difficult to predict the outcome of the ongoing studies, Nadine Wong and her team think there is strong scientific and clinical evidence to support Provenge.

Despite this news, the market did not fully embrace Provenge’s clinical data and Dendreon’s share price did not show much change in valuation, positive or negative. Wong and her team think that the market is off base here, as Provenge was being evaluated in men with advanced prostate cancer. If the patient population were different, as is in the current Phase II clinical trial, which includes men with early- stage disease, Provenge would probably have been shown to be more efficacious. Advanced cancers of any kind are extremely difficult to treat.

Regardless, if all goes well with the Phase III clinical trials, which Wong and her team believe will happen, Dendreon should be able to submit a market application with the FDA in 2006. Wong and the team think Dendreon will prevail with Provenge along with Dendreon’s ability to identify a partner to help market Provenge. They predict an increase in share price for the company.




http://www.zacks.com/experts/featured/view_article.php?art_id=2018&newsletter_id=24&&PHP...