Intel Corp (INTC)

[Elmer Phud]

Spokeshave -

Interesting that when it is AMD, you call it failure to execute and poor yields. When it is Intel, you call it "capacity constrained". Intel would never have been "capacity constrained" had they:
1) Executed the transition to 0.18 micron efficiently
2) Scaled coppermine better
3) Not had to recall the 1.13 Ghz fiasco.

First off, it's an easy exercise to calculate AMD's capacity to produce processors based on die size and the wafer capacity of their medium sized fab. Their fab has always failed to produce what one would expect assuming reasonable yields. We are forced to change our yield assumptions if we are to explain AMD's poor fab output. But to address your other points:

#1 It's true that the Coppermine ramp wasn't as smooth as hoped but that just proves the point. AMD made money because Intel couldn't deliver volume. Willamette was introduced on the same .18u process but by then it was running smoothly. Nevertheless, the market sweetspot moved to a higher MHz and CuMines no longer fit the bill. Willamette's huge die size created the capacity constraints. Incidently, it's looking like AMD will have to move Clawhammer to a larger L2 because of the poor performance of their original 256K L2 design. The larger die puts AMD back into a similar position Intel was in with the Willamette release.

#2 True again. Athlon caught Intel with their pants down and Coppermine couldn't scale to match. A position quite similar to where AMD finds themselves today.

#3 How true! You're 3 for 3! But that was a minor product volume wise, intended only for bragging rights.

Now, is it your position that the past predicts the future? That might be true if we had no additional datapoints but Intel's execution has been near flawless since the unfortunate events you point out. Meanwhile AMD's execution has been a disaster. AMD's fabs produce far fewer processors than they should based on die size and wafer capacity, and that's before trying to tackle an unproven almost experimental fab process.

EP