I think the points you guys make are all valid. But the big point is still sometimes overlooked. The stock is $2.40. And that is ONLY because people now fear that another trial MAY be necessary. I know seek is better. It's safer, more efficacious. That's not the point. If the FDA will make NEOP do another study, you're looking at about a 2 year delay and a stock going to $1.
Now then.....having said that. I have 15,000 shares and picked up another 1,000 yesterday AH at 2.41. So you see where I stand. If you think the shorts are right, sell now. It will go lower. If you think that NEOP files an NDA and FDA will approve and throw out CP, then back up the truck. You'll see a 100% gain before the EOY.
I know SC was only approved for breast cancer. But it still throws out part of the argument before, which said that NEOP had to run the study against VBD b/c SC was not FDA approved. Also, now it may mean more competition, b/c some doctors will be reluctant to change. They can now get more $$$ using SC and have to wait 1 year for seek to be approved. That's still an unfortunate lag time for NEOP, even if their product IS superior--it is.
Could you conduct a trial using both versus seek? Not sure? I got what you said. And it makes sense. But why not do seek vs. current standard of care (VBD and SC) and just base results based on safety and efficacy without separating which agent was the problem? That likely could be done.
The FDA told them to do it this way and they did. But the FDA is a wild card that can never be predicted. In the end, I think all your points are valid and seek will go through on the first pass. But EVERYTHING now comes down to will FDA accept NDA (meaning throw out CP) or not and will they approve without seeing any further trials. That's really the ONLY reason we are at $2.40.
If you think things will still work out, do like me, and keep adding. But things are not quite as rosy as they were a week ago. It's hard to see that this has materially changed much. In many ways, practically it hasn't. But psychologically and competitively it certainly has.
By the way, NEOP could file NDA without going public about it. I can provide the link to show you guys if you care. But have to eat dinner now......GL everyone. But know that this is not a one-sided affair. Both sides have some legit claims. It's a matter of where you stand? I'm about 16,000 shares long.
And last thing---I can't go through all the positives and negatives. I'm certainly no DDbuyer. But I think the analysis and comments I've posted are fair, no matter where you stand, long or short.
Just ask yourselves why this stock will trade around $2 now? Something MUST have changed.
