Biotech Values

[BTH]

ONTY STIMUVAX

http://university.asco.org/dgtfiles/ClinTrials/Symposium/3GlobalGaumond.pdf

you can read the whole thread here...
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_O/threadview?m=ts&bn=72373&tid=66811&mid=66811&tof=12&frt=2


from a yahoo poster...

I am a member of Value Investors Club. This extremely bullish article was posted a few hours ago. Whoever wrote this did an incredible amount of research and provides it all. Great work to whoever you are. This baby is going to be a homerun.

Description:
Statistical analysis of the inadvertently released enrollment curve for Oncothyreon's ("ONTY") lung cancer vaccine, Stimuvax, shows there is a
50%+ probability Stimuvax is working. At $8.84/sh, ONTY's EV is $350mm, but if Stimuvax works, the company is worth ~$1.8b, resulting
in a stock price of ~$39/sh, ~340% above today's close.
Stimuvax is currently in the Phase 3 Stimulating Targeted Antigenic Responses to NSCLC ("START") trial that we estimate shows a patient
survival benefit of 18 months. For Stage III, unresectable, nonsmall
cell lung cancer ("NSCLC") patients, the two major advances of the past
decade, concurrent chemoradiation
and Tarceva as maintenance therapy, have shown patient survival benefits of 2 months and 5 months,
respectively (note: the 5 month advantage of Tarceva has not been shown in a Phase 3 statistically significant trial). An 18 month survival
benefit would make Stimuvax the standard of care resulting in a few billion in annual sales.
The enrollment curve for the START trial was inadvertently disclosed by scientists working for EMD Serono, a division of Merck KGaA
("Merck"), at an American Society of Clinical Oncology ("ASCO") conference workshop. If you're not a healthcare investor, an enrollment curve
tells you when patients were admitted to a trial. Additional publically available data about the trial, such as the number of deaths that
occurred at the first interim look allows you to make a fairly accurate estimate of the median survival for the entire study. Knowing how long
patients with Stage III, unresectable, NSCLC generally live (i.e., the placebo group) allows you to estimate the median survival for patients
receiving Stimuvax.
Our work and the analysis of a biostatistics professor we employed indicate it is likely that Stimuvax will be shown to work at the second
interim look, which will occur in the next 6 months. As it is uncommon for efficacy to be shown at an interim look, there is an asymmetric
riskreward
as the typical biotech downside (i.e., the compound doesn't work) is statistically unlikely, but if the trial is stopped because
Stimuvax works, ONTY will skyrocket.
While I've spoken with oncologists who believe the scientific rationale behind Stimuvax is sound, our investment is reached not by studying
the drug, but through analysis of the enrollment curve for the START trial. This isn't about understanding the science behind a new biologic
vaccine it's
a math problem.
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