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Wednesday, July 13, 2011 10:53:30 PM
I think we're definitely closer now Git. I went back tonight after I got home after my USD/CHF IHS pattern failed and I got stopped out.
I went back to the weekly and I saw the same 1.618 extension. So I wanted to draw in some trend lines and then get a wave count if possible.
So here's the weekly chart first. The bottom trend line shows that the price action is pretty close here...maybe we see 0.80, maybe a bit below but that's about it.
So with that target in mind, I flipped back to the 4 hour chart and realized that the big dump we had today is Wave 3 there. The counts are pretty clear. So we get a Wave 4 bounce here soon and then a final Wave 5 down to the trend line. That's where we get our bigger long-term bounce and that's where the larger patterns like the S&P head and shoulders will kick in.
I'm gonna hold out until I see that divergence on the 4 hour chart along with a full 5 wave count. Since Wave 2 was pretty sharp, I would expect that Wave 4 is gonna piddle around for a while in a sideways fashion. Should be some good pips to be made though. Then we can really nail it on the 5th wave.
EDIT: That will also give EU time to move back up and test the 4 hour MA200 as resistance.
Weekly first, then 4 hour chart...
I went back to the weekly and I saw the same 1.618 extension. So I wanted to draw in some trend lines and then get a wave count if possible.
So here's the weekly chart first. The bottom trend line shows that the price action is pretty close here...maybe we see 0.80, maybe a bit below but that's about it.
So with that target in mind, I flipped back to the 4 hour chart and realized that the big dump we had today is Wave 3 there. The counts are pretty clear. So we get a Wave 4 bounce here soon and then a final Wave 5 down to the trend line. That's where we get our bigger long-term bounce and that's where the larger patterns like the S&P head and shoulders will kick in.
I'm gonna hold out until I see that divergence on the 4 hour chart along with a full 5 wave count. Since Wave 2 was pretty sharp, I would expect that Wave 4 is gonna piddle around for a while in a sideways fashion. Should be some good pips to be made though. Then we can really nail it on the 5th wave.
EDIT: That will also give EU time to move back up and test the 4 hour MA200 as resistance.
Weekly first, then 4 hour chart...
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