GLD- investors can and will go to treasuries/dollars, Yen/JGB and bunds (perhaps w a currency hedge) too. one thing credit fund managers *cannot* go to is gold. it simply violates their investment mandate and they oversee trillions.
Long-term I agree w your thesis, but short-term it's probable that all the above will rally if things get worse which makes it all the less likely gold goes "parabolic". I do strongly believe it will rally though, which is fine w me since I keep my "cash" in gold.
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