Subaye, Inc (SBAY)

[sweetonsubaye]

if it was real, why would things have gone the way they have gone?

this is the 64 thousand er i mean million dollar question: Ive seen this before, when a stock goes down there is always someone that stands to benefit, in sbays case is it just the 3d party shorts?

test the insider short theory, insiders have to maintain control to make it work, and insiders have to decide whether to scrap the company or is there a chance to make even more money by keeping the company intact?

first ask what is the company offering, a catchy brand, anyone that has studied the company can see that. allegedly cloud computing. i can believe it because where the company is from. an angle on cloud, that is video, this is where the real heavy data lifting is.--that they want to keep the company intact then is a no braner

do they want to rip off shareholders and sell the company (perhaps to themselves)? well apart from the fact that just about every BOD out there has had this cross their mind one time or another, that's kind of moot, but on the otherhand, they did work hard for the nasdaq listing and it was not a pure rsm by any means--after all deng is still in the game

is there a difference between insiders illegally selling shares to make profit and shorting? technically of course yes insiders can dodge reporting requirements either way though both ways damage the company, shorting is more damaging and self-fullfilling and requires much more control of the company post pump to insure that there would be no need to cover not so with just selling shares outright.

look for a moment at the alexa numbers, if one takes them as gospel, you would have to come to the conclusion that italians either have a vibrant chinese community second only to china or that the stock is being shorted hand over fist. but wait, we have the "MAP" and the map only for the first time has shown that there are visitors at this ihub board, and overall they comprise less than 3 percent of the total number of visitors to date. hence i conclude that the alexa italy numbers are majorly cooked, and if that is the case, alexa is just wrong on china too, question is whether this is a good kind of wrong or a bad kind of wrong?

who's left to short the, stock if not italy(talking insiders--had to treat italy as such because of the high alexa numbers)? china v germany, china hardly shows up on the "map", so i'd say chinese insiders are not shorting. What about Germany? well they are the second most significant country and HOLTERMANN is german and now he controls the company--he is a 40-something year old guy w/ that kind of pedigree going to throw it all away by being a fox in the hen house?--I don't think so but he might if he's a brazan fool

typically all but a few of the deepest insiders drink at least some of the kool-aid and in a criminal enterprise those that are short insiders would not even suggest to their best friend to short their company, so if profit was made by those close to insiders it would have to be from selling shares high--period. I just don't think again that holterman would put his neck out on the chopping block to benefit even himself.

my thinking rules out insider shorting but not sloppy insider profit taking. crane on the otherhand, i don't consider to be an insider (anymore) he could have leaked info to short the stock to this friends. But they would be very careful

so without rambling on much further, i don't buy into the idea that holtermann is overqualified to the point that all he can do is be either a crook or a hypester--hence the german map numbers are newcomers that are betting on holtermann from a quasi-insider point of view

this leaves 3d party shorts seizing the moment in a thinly traded stock, remember what warren buffet has said, he'd flunk anyone that can value a .com, that is a good as a thesis as any for the shorts to go after this

now lets look at the this from the most sinister point of view then, INCEPTION, a popular movie with a powerful message, if you have power, people will try to influance you and yes even deceive you, and where and when? not so much by crane, put more likely through him, you see the company was shopping wallstreet, and crane was providing "feedback", which was no doubt, sorry bud, you need a big 4 auditor for us to even look at you. this was the two edged sword, meaning if you are fool enough to ask us your stock deserves to be shorted if you are fool enough to follow our advice.

look at the company's history, this otc.bb has had dozen's of deals over the past 10 years even if they were squeeky clean it would still be a friggn mess for auditors to consider, something lots of investors might not consider.

there has been talk that pwc never got nothing, well if that was the case then how did they come to the conclusion that the company was not properly delineating between vendors and customers? This is a case of the not ready for primetime players from the corporate point of view, does that mean that they don't have a viable operation, no, it only means that they have no choice to be less profitable if they want to be a company that is popular in investors eyes--they have to choose to implement controls that cost money to implement--in a way, for small companies unfamiliar with the process it ammounts to a form of extortion, if you want to run w/ the big boys you have to payup, pwc i'm sure wanted a fortune to "sort things out", guys like deng don't get that (kind of crap) and hence they went into f-it mode

hence in essence, holtermann's job is not just to run the company (something he'll get lots of help with), but also to mediate between wall street and core management--which of course is a one way street, holtermann has to convince them that they have to do things a certain way, no more anything goes on the control and audit side of management.

did the company tout, yes, no doubt, but in my oppinion its a matter of degree than pure wishful thinking. That is they are pumping oil have big reserves but are touting outflow more than they should since they are also providing oil services because they honestly think they will catch up, very frankly, given this is china and they are marketing a video cloud product i think this is a far assumption

often times management that plays such games gets burned, but often times it goes undetected because their theory that they would "catch up" is correct, bernie madoff could never catch-up, these guys could have if only they would not have moved to a big 4 auditor so fast, now they have their pants down and holtermann is there to pull them up, or better to convince them they need a new pair of pants all together in the mean time hopefully they are continuing to market and sell their cloud product--it was a big change their pricing strategy and that is what probably more than anything convinced the shorts that there would be a problem gaining retaining customers

china is gowing in everyway and though most don't know it yet, the cloud is an ideal cost savings technology but they will and i'm betting subaye will be aroud to share in the spoils in the not to distant future