Hi Whitelake. I had that very question when I first started using the program.
In your example, the Sell Forecast price of $12.01/share is the exact point where the stock price crosses the upper blue XDEV band (based on the latest price update). Based on a number of factors, (deviation, moving average, and others) the algorithm calculates the total dollar amount to sell. It divides this dollar amount by the stock price and gives the number of shares you should sell. If dollar amount divided by share price yields fewer shares than your minimum, XDEV will recommend that you hold and not sell anything.
In your example, XDEV has calculated that you should sell only $29.27 worth of stock. At a price of $11.48/share, this is only 2.55 shares, which is well below your minimum of 45 shares. So, XDEV says don't sell anything (ie, 0 shares).
To get a feel for it, try doing two things. First lower the number of sell shares to 1. XDEV should tell you to sell 2 shares, which it can do without ignoring your minimum sell requirements.
The other thing is to increase the sell multiple. When you increase the sell multiple, XDEV applies a multiplier effect and ratchets up the selling activity. Try inputting 10 for the sell multiple (leaving minimum sell shares to 1). XDEV will recommend a sale of 21 shares. The parameters all work together.
Tomorrow, when the price moves up or down, the deviation will undoubtedly be different than it was today. Also, the oldest day in the 12 day moving average will drop off. So, new calculations will be made based on a new set of parameters. I confess to not having complete knowledge of all the details of the inner calculations.
I have had some discussions with Myst and Yong about this and they are reviewing it. Hopefully, my explanation will be helpful for now. Play with the number of shares and the multiples to get a feel for how they affect your buys and sells.
Lou
AI
