Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[pstuartb]

Zeev - interesting post back there where you said:

we keep a balance of payment that grows and soon will reach 5% of GDP. Once that happens, a major readjustment of currencies will be unavoidable, and that will involve pain, not so much to us (a little inflation) but to the countries that export to us, because will have to cut our imports drastically, plunging the world into a "readjusting recession". I had the beginning of that happening in the second half, but it quite possible that the market have anticipated and are already readjusting the dollar, and the 10 to 15% decline we had in the last quarter are just the first "serving".

Saville makes the same argument here regarding the current account deficit at 5% of GDP: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/milhouse121802.html
but I gather he anticipates a deep and sustained decline in the dollar as a result. If so, I would think the repatriation of foreign assets and reduction of imports would take the naz at least to your 950 level, perhaps that's part of what you have in mind.