AI
Friday, July 08, 2011 9:31:47 AM
There is no easy or surefire answer to your question, unfortunately. Everything I have is PURE SPECULATION.
However, there are a few things I've noticed. The last handful of weeks, it's been almost predictable how the PPS will react, and the prediction has always been "stupid." We see a surge in the morning, then low vol during the day, and finally the MMs will paint it to a certain point at close. By painting, it means that no matter what the previous volume for the existing price was, they will mark it down to wherever they want it to be, w/ridiculously small blocks of vol.
Actually, this happens during the day as well. Tons of vol at a price point, then almost nothing to move it wherever they want. And what's interesting is that this can go either way during the day, but the end of the day is almost always predictable.
For instance. Let's say it's been SHOWING 17 most of the day... but these 17s are reached w/almost no vol, and "hang" (meaning the intraday chart shows 17 "lasting" for a long time) for the majority of the day. However if you look at the time and sales, you'll see that 17 vol is low, and it will often be marked around the sales of MILLIONS at 16. Then... at the end of the day, regardless of what showed during the day, they will mark it where they want to, which will most likely be the opening price (take a look at the chart for how many spinning top dojis there are).
*** HOWEVER *** ... and if you can't tell.. this is a big however..
MMTE still trades fairly technically. UGLY technically, but technically nonetheless. It still recognizes supports and resistances, and trades within those ranges. Looking at the chart, you'll see it trading between bollinger bands, and being supported by the midBB when it's above it. That being said, the 200d sma is a HUUUGE technical component, so it doesn't surprise me that the PPS responds to it. Why it's still trading technically w/all this pretty obvious manipulation, I don't know... but it is.. that's the simple fact of the matter.
So how do we get out of this ugly existence?
Volume, and lots of it.
Right now, our vol is very low from what it used to be when this stock was active. Our "big" days are an average day from only a month and a half ago. Heck, look at June 13th when we gapped up. That vol is still only slightly better than a normal day from a month and a half ago. If we had our regular volume, that gap up would most likely be a HUGE turnaround for the stock... because in a normal trading session, those are quite significant. However, with the volume we've seen, the MMs still manipulate the pps as much and as easily as they want to.... and yet they still stay w/in technical boundaries.. which still confuses the hell out of me.
If the volume were to increase back to how it used to be, IMO, the MMs wouldn't be able to hold it how they are now. It's basically like, "they're stealing free slushies because no one is looking." If the store were packed, they wouldn't be able to get away with it.
This is why I get so ticked off about the Brian thing. Here we're PAYING someone to be an IR person, and instead of getting people to keep that volume running, he's spending his time spinning conspiracy theories to current investors about ACTUAL stockholders and insulting people who ask simple questions about the stock. How exactly does that make current shareholders want to stay w/us, and how does that do ANYTHING to attract new people? Not only does it make people turn away from a stock w/such a childish IR department, but he's also clearly NOT spending his time trying to reel in more/bigger investors. So it's really no surprise that our volume is stagnant.
Do I think he's solely to blame for the PPS? No... But when you take a step back and look at how he's NOT doing his job, and how he's wasting our money turning this stock into a he said, she said high school drama circus, you can see how it most likely would have an effect... and if you saw the amount of effort he's gone to do some really shady/childish stuff, it would be appalling. This is why I say that MMTE would be better off w/NO IR if the choice is between him and having none. He's not doing anything for us, and arguably doing things that hurt us, so there's no reason to waste the resources we don't really have on him.
Bottom line is.. for whatever reason that the PPS gets manipulated as it has been, it will stay this way until we get volume.
Here's the chart so that you can pick out the points I mentioned:
However, there are a few things I've noticed. The last handful of weeks, it's been almost predictable how the PPS will react, and the prediction has always been "stupid." We see a surge in the morning, then low vol during the day, and finally the MMs will paint it to a certain point at close. By painting, it means that no matter what the previous volume for the existing price was, they will mark it down to wherever they want it to be, w/ridiculously small blocks of vol.
Actually, this happens during the day as well. Tons of vol at a price point, then almost nothing to move it wherever they want. And what's interesting is that this can go either way during the day, but the end of the day is almost always predictable.
For instance. Let's say it's been SHOWING 17 most of the day... but these 17s are reached w/almost no vol, and "hang" (meaning the intraday chart shows 17 "lasting" for a long time) for the majority of the day. However if you look at the time and sales, you'll see that 17 vol is low, and it will often be marked around the sales of MILLIONS at 16. Then... at the end of the day, regardless of what showed during the day, they will mark it where they want to, which will most likely be the opening price (take a look at the chart for how many spinning top dojis there are).
*** HOWEVER *** ... and if you can't tell.. this is a big however..
MMTE still trades fairly technically. UGLY technically, but technically nonetheless. It still recognizes supports and resistances, and trades within those ranges. Looking at the chart, you'll see it trading between bollinger bands, and being supported by the midBB when it's above it. That being said, the 200d sma is a HUUUGE technical component, so it doesn't surprise me that the PPS responds to it. Why it's still trading technically w/all this pretty obvious manipulation, I don't know... but it is.. that's the simple fact of the matter.
So how do we get out of this ugly existence?
Volume, and lots of it.
Right now, our vol is very low from what it used to be when this stock was active. Our "big" days are an average day from only a month and a half ago. Heck, look at June 13th when we gapped up. That vol is still only slightly better than a normal day from a month and a half ago. If we had our regular volume, that gap up would most likely be a HUGE turnaround for the stock... because in a normal trading session, those are quite significant. However, with the volume we've seen, the MMs still manipulate the pps as much and as easily as they want to.... and yet they still stay w/in technical boundaries.. which still confuses the hell out of me.
If the volume were to increase back to how it used to be, IMO, the MMs wouldn't be able to hold it how they are now. It's basically like, "they're stealing free slushies because no one is looking." If the store were packed, they wouldn't be able to get away with it.
This is why I get so ticked off about the Brian thing. Here we're PAYING someone to be an IR person, and instead of getting people to keep that volume running, he's spending his time spinning conspiracy theories to current investors about ACTUAL stockholders and insulting people who ask simple questions about the stock. How exactly does that make current shareholders want to stay w/us, and how does that do ANYTHING to attract new people? Not only does it make people turn away from a stock w/such a childish IR department, but he's also clearly NOT spending his time trying to reel in more/bigger investors. So it's really no surprise that our volume is stagnant.
Do I think he's solely to blame for the PPS? No... But when you take a step back and look at how he's NOT doing his job, and how he's wasting our money turning this stock into a he said, she said high school drama circus, you can see how it most likely would have an effect... and if you saw the amount of effort he's gone to do some really shady/childish stuff, it would be appalling. This is why I say that MMTE would be better off w/NO IR if the choice is between him and having none. He's not doing anything for us, and arguably doing things that hurt us, so there's no reason to waste the resources we don't really have on him.
Bottom line is.. for whatever reason that the PPS gets manipulated as it has been, it will stay this way until we get volume.
Here's the chart so that you can pick out the points I mentioned:
Clavis vitae est scientia temperata sapientia.
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