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Wednesday, June 29, 2011 10:47:40 PM
One thing is for sure, if we figure out which one of these will survive and thrive, and time our entry properly, we will make serious money. I have hedged my bets by betting on US Shale NG for instance, while it so cheap. As they will need NG as a feed stock for some of these ideas and processes, and BTU/BTU cost of oil versus NG is about a 5:1 ratio right now. I got into CABN originally because they were going to leap over and skip multiple nasty, hard to control, expensive biomass steps needed to use algae, and they were going the use the Algae-like organic enzymes at near room temperature to convert CO2 into a liquid fuel. I got into MVTG because of the Chemical engineering professor behind their science (also one of the reasons I first got into CABN), and the over all plan to make a liquid (formic acid) that has multiple uses (including fuel for fuel cells in cars) out of CO2, water and electricity, and I have been watching others like the one Kenny posted an article on....like OOIL, that says they have solved one step of the major problems facing Algae oil.....
When CABN was working on the organic enzyme path, it was going to require entire new plants, equipment, processes, major JV partners, and big amounts of capital (so lots of dollars in revenue, and thus large dollar profit potential). This new direction, has the upside of perhaps being a plug and play drop in, but what value would an integrated plant operator like Shell who already has billion dollar plants put on such a new catalyst? What is to stop them from using the formula royalty free in Quatar with no one knowing they are using it (secrecy)? How much can CABND expect to earn as a middle man on a license only deal (no added value from building their own plant) to someone like Shell? There are I think 2 or 3 major firms that make most of the catalysts used in the worlds reactors, and none of them are huge companies, like many expect CABN to turn into.
Then the big, big question is, how easy will it be to engineer around the patent now that it is published, with a nearly as good as catalyst, with out paying a royalty if CABND asks for too much for the royalty prices?
My first read on the patent tells me it had top notch patent (Chemical Engineer patent) attorney's writing it so it may be a huge $$$$$ patent. Time will tell.
But what if all they can earn on licensing the one catalyst is $1 million dollars a year after several years of hard work marketing it?
One ray of light I still see, is if they can build and sell (rent or lease) mini reactors that are shipped to remote NG well sites that have too much CO2 in the well to be profitable to put to any other use, or to package and ship, they could make money that way. If they build, rent or license such beasts, then the well owners could produce a synthetic crude, or perhaps fuel (diesel?) for sale by tanker truck or pipeline from the well heads. I believe there are thousands of wells that have the CO2 problem. Also CO2 could be used to help pressure old wells and extract more CH4 with out CO2 dilution being a problem.
But right now all we hear about is the one catalyst for making syn gas. Perhaps they plan on using existing patents (license), or older GTL technology for the rest of the process, but they will need one more major cog in the wheel, a fabrication, construction, installation, permit engineering firm to complete the final package deal, to design, build, permit install and commission the new mini plants! I hear nothing about that yet.
Ambition with out knowledge is like ship in dry dock. Going nowhere fast!
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