Nothing like losses to focus the mind. May was a disappointment, took a small loss after a long string of monthly gains. June has been worse, though the last 3 days has brought me mostly back.
Could the market be more manic/depressive than the past several weeks. We were facing a worldwide depression, now the economy appears to be growing, even if at an anemic pace.
I'm open to whatever is coming. I'm not smart enough or with adequate resources to know which of the experts is correct, if any of them are. I expect that the developed world will continue to grow, albeit, at a much slower rate than the historic norm. This is simply a result of pretty much all of the Western nations continued move to a more socialist political economy. Instead of vibrant entrepreneurial economies, we will see economies, largely controlled by large central governments, large corporations, and large labor unions. But much of the developing nations, will grow rapidly.
A major theme of my portfolio continues to be natural resources. Whether we reenter a recession or not, I expect the future will create demand/supply inbalances in many resources. Whether we have a reduction in demand for a quarter, two, three or four, it's crazy to discount resources in the ground, to the extent that we have. So, I'll continue to add to my holdings. But I maintain a sizeable cash position, should the market bears regain their command, and will hedge existing positions.
Living in a retirement community, I hear many people brag about how they have their money safe, and won't risk any in the stock market. They may feel safe, but they may be at great risk. Inflation isn't licked, in my opinion, and today's low rates make fixed income investing a nonstarter. I still believe you need equity exposure, whether retired or not, at least in my humble opinion. Certainly the last couple of years have been great for me, and I'm delighted that I didn't seek the safety of bank CDs.
