MDA - Market Direction Analysis

[gfs_1999]

Analysis - Tuesday, December 31, 2002 8 p.m.

Today was such a slow day, it was hardly worth paying any
attention to the market at all. In fact, the last few days have been very
slow. This is a common occurrence during this time of year. However, we
believe the market volatility will begin to increase for here from the
first trading day of January 2003 onward.
The Cycles suggest that a short-term high is due near January 7,
plus or minus 1 day. A short-term low is due near January 9, plus or
minus 1 day. A short-term high is due near
January 13, plus or minus 1 day. A short-term low is due near January 15,
plus or minus 1 day. A short-term high is due near January 23, plus or
minus 1 day.
If the market sells off from here there should still be support
near the bottom of the 21-Day 3 1/2% Exponential Trading Band. On Thursday
the bottom of that band for the Dow should be in the area of 8166 or so,
depending on where we close.
The first important support on Thursday will be 8242 on a print
basis in the Dow. A decline below that support on Thursday should signal
that an even stronger decline is coning at some point Thursday. That
decline could move down near, or just below the bottom of the 21-Day 3 1/2%
Exponential Trading Band, which we discussed earlier.