Without revealing names
It sounds incredible to me that despite:
a) Ariad rising about 110% since Jan 1, 2011
b) Ariad selling at it's highest PPS since May 28th 2004, when it closed at $10.74.
c) The PPS rising almost on a daily basis, despite a bad market, trouble across the pond, fear of a double dip, etc.
d) Phase 111 completeed and primary endpoint achieved with it's very first cancer drug. Especially considering that the odds of getting a drug approved is probably 20 to 1, as I read that only about 1 in 20 developed compounds finally get approved as a drug.
e) Efficacy so good with their second cancer drug that the FDA allowed us, in effect, to skip a full clinical Phase step and go into a pivitol trial.
f) Predictions by the CEO that Ariad may have two drugs approved for sale by 2012 year end.
g) Recent revelations that the very first drug developed by Ariad, (about 10 years ago), and which Ariad took successfully through Phase 1 and came out with flying colors, and which Harvey finally said two years later that the company will not conduct a Phase 11 because of the limited funds available and the more important fact that the then present state of Medical Science was not advanced enough to utilize what AP1903 can do. Well Medical Science has finally advanced enough so that AP1903 can now finally do it's thing and it sure appears that Bellicum saw that potential and is proving it now. This is why, and I believe the only reason, that Harvey started referring to AP1903 as our 4th compound. Though it was actually the first developed by Ariad, we have already been calling Rida our first drug and Pona our second, so why change all the number references instead of just giving 1903 the next number pulled from the number machine at the Ariad Bakery and Sweet Shoppe :O).
h) Recently learning our third drug will be entering the clinic in short order and further learning that even before entering the clinic, it's possible market has tripled. And also learning that it's future competitor (Crizotinib), was one of the biggest stars at ASCO, and I read where one analyst said that Crizotinib may be able to garner 4 Billion in peak sales. Also learning that our labs believe that 113 is 10x more potent than Crizotinib and up to 100x more selective and can treat all the Crizotinib mutations.
i) Not to mention the many other indications that # 1 and 2 may eventually address.
Despite the above, we still have posters trying to throw a damp towel on our warranted enthusiasm, by CREATING a 4th compound failure scenario, as a reason for calling 1903 our 4th compound and implying that Harvey is pumping the stock to conceal same.
I have been an investor and trader of Ariad since 1995, and in my opinion, the prospects on the company have never been brighter, and the science never better than at present. Sit back, as I am doing, and enjoy the ride.
As usual, just MHO,
Barry
AI
