Biomass Secure Power Inc. (BMSPF)

[PhillipD]

Number Crunching

The proclaimed sales numbers and purchase agreement revenues with LG have been somewhat of a mystery that is hard to validate since I really haven't seen any ways to put a number to the capital costs associated with construction of the torrified wood facilities or what the pellets can be sold for. In reading through Francis Gaskins Report, there was a small link to the article below that was able to answer some of the mysteries that I couldn't find an answer to.

Biomass Report

In particular if you scroll down to the section "Metrics and Costs of Torrefaction of Wood Wastes", this was pay dirt. Below is my number crunching based on short term production of the one plant and the long term numbers once all plants are constructed:


High Low
Capital Costs* $16,000,000 $10,000,000
Production Cost after drying $69.00 Per dry ton
Sale Price $80.27 Per Short Ton
Margin $11.27 Per Short Ton

Sales to EU Countries
Sale Price $233.93 Per Short Ton
Delivery Costs $80.00 Per Short Ton
Production + Delivery $149.00 Per Short Ton
EU Margin $84.93 Per Short Ton

Biomass Secure Power Statistics
Shares Outstanding= 235,099,866
Capital cost of 1500 tpd/500,000 ton/yr plant= $16,000,000
Production cost of 500,000 ton/yr= $34,500,000.00
Sales of 500,000 ton/yr= $40,135,000.00
Margin= $5,635,000.00
EPS= 0.02
Forward P/E @ 0.03 = 1.25
Share Price if Forward P/E = 5 = $0.12
ROI on Capital Costs= 0.35
Margin per ton= $11.27

Biomass Secure Power quoted revenue for all plants= $270,000,000.00
Margin after all plants constructed per year= $37,908,309.46
EPS= $0.16
Forward P/E @ 0.03 = 0.19
Share Price if Forward P/E = 5 $0.81

* - 1,500 gtpd and 2,000 gtpd day of wood waste or 750 tpd to 1,000 tpd of dry chips